Who Will Become President?

[lliam]

"In America, anyone can become president," said Adlai E. Stevenson, Jr. "That's one of the risks you take."

Since the conventions haven't even been held to nominate their respective candidates, in theory anyone can still become president. But Election Projection thinks it can tell you now who the President will be in November.Using a heap of the most recent polling data and its own formula, the site takes state-by-state voting totals from 2000 and updates then to project a 2004 outcome. According to a recent analysis, President Bush will edge out the average Democrat by a 50.59 percent to 48.41 percent margin. The site's author is a self-confessed Republican, so take the numbers with a fistful of salt. The site itself points not just to the instant availability of information, but its synthesis into something extremely useful.

The Presidential Prediction Page compiles the predictions of visitors to the site and finds the median. So far it's nip and tuck, with the Dems ahead in electoral votes.

If you want to take your own reading of the electoral pulse, try PollingReport.com, which rolls up more polls than you could shake a standard deviation at. In February, the surveys said Bush pounded Edwards and Dean, but got kicked by Kerry. You can connect these dots to other polls there if you want—like those on consumer confidence and alienation, direction of the country, and even offshore tax shelters. Before you know it, you might develop a real insight into who's going to win way before your friends and family do.

But that's one of the risks you take.

[lliam]

Who still thinks Bushsh is doing a good job??

Osama Bin Fergotten

[lliam]

Guys, don’t fallout with me over this observation. This same thing appears to be happening with us in the UK. In our case it’s the EU that’s becoming a damn headache, where as in your case it seems to be the UN trying to dictate. Shos knows I’m not politically minded that doesn’t mean to say I’m blind about, corruption and such things going on around me. That’s another story right now I would like you to read what I’ve read about and observed over the last several months.
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Do you guys disagree with many of Bush's positions? However, like many others- find yourself in the rather difficult position that there really isn't a decent alternative??

Right now, the most serious decisions facing you are about the very nature of your government, not specific issues. Namely:

1. Should the government serve the people, or serve narrow interest groups looking out only for themselves?

2. Should the United States seek its own national interest, or should it subordinate its national interest to that of other nations?

On the first question, there are inarguably interest groups on both the left and the right. But the left is simply infested with them, while they are mostly marginalized on the right. Democratic legislation is more or less written on K Street and handed fait accompli to Senators and Congressmen to pass. The leftist interest groups have no issue claiming that they are responsible for all manner of horrible government programs, inefficiencies, and silliness. In a very real sense, the Democratic Party is these interest groups.

In contrast, on the right, the interest groups have to keep a much lower profile. They can't proclaim from the rooftops that a particular piece of terrible legislation is their baby. And they comprise a much smaller portion of the whole. In a sense, the politics of this country are like a bucket with a thin layer of scum on the top. To get rid of it, first you tilt the bucket to dump out the scum where it is most prevalent (on the left). Then you tip the bucket back the other way to catch what remains.

The second issue is one of national sovereignty. You have federal judges who have seriously written down references to foreign law. You have people who seriously suggest that the U.N. should have some sort of veto power over U.S. foreign policy. These are fundamentally anti-American propositions that deny the very basis of democracy- the decisions of a citizenry to rule their own lives. Without a strong sense of national sovereignty, you are not a nation- you’re merely slaves to the whims of other people's opinions.

These are the real issues in the November election- not Bush's specific actions. His foreign policy is one of national interest- even if you may disagree with the conclusions of his team about how you should go about pursuing national interest, you know that the basis of his policies is national interest, not an attempt to win some sort of global popularity contest. And even if you disagree with his domestic policy, it is predicated in American ideals for the betterment of all, not simply a grab for cash and influence by certain small, well-organized groups.

[piqaboo]

originally by lliam And even if you disagree with his domestic policy, it is predicated in American ideals for the betterment of all, not simply a grab for cash and influence by certain small, well-organized groups.

Well, I disagree with you on that statement.
But perhaps Im merely being disagreeable because you got TWO bottles of whiskey, and I cant drink at all these days!

[Nicole Marie]

Like how a guy from the UK wants to stir up the pot on the US elections. I think Llaim likes to start fights on the BBB.

[Selma in Sandy Eggo]

Lliam, I don't think you quite understand American; the mind, the language, or the politics. Nothing is true all the time. You might also remember that when you feel the urge to tell us how our government works, you're going to offend someone. Every time.

I'll put up with the lengthy history lectures and political and philosophical dreck, but don't go telling me how American politics works. You lot have your own fish: go fry them.

There is a strong element of anarchy in our character. Respectable middleaged women in comfortable shoes and bifocals may also be quite decent markswomen. Not to mention their younger, rowdier, fitter sons. We harbor a sneaking admiration for smelly cattle drovers and hillbilly vendettists. When sufficiently frustrated, many Americans will briefly remember that havoc and mayhem are an option.

We even sell T-shirts with the motto:
F**k it. Nuke 'em all. Let God sort 'em out.

We have several flavors of political activists on the BB; and not all of us talk about our politics a lot. With a big enough group, some one of us will honestly support, and another of us will honestly abhor, every single major American political decision. So don't go telling us that somebody on K street made all the decisions and set the whole package over to Congress to be rubberstamped. Now British politics, I'll let you explain to me. I don't understand British politics at all.

Or for a real exercise in creativity, would you like to explain Italian politics to me?

[OperaTenor]

Selma, you have one of those t-shirts, don't you?

[mmichaelson]

It does seem like Lliam wants to stir up trouble.

So I'll throw one right back at him:
How do you feel about Tony Blair and your own foreign policy?

(BTW I DO like Bush. . .as I've said before. Everyone is entitled to their own position and opinions)

[Selma in Sandy Eggo]

Originally posted by OperaTenor:
Selma, you have one of those t-shirts, don't you?

I have to get a new one. The last guy I loaned mine to got blood all over it, and there's a hole in the flaming skull.

The Spring Valley swap meet still have that used Harley parts and T-shirts booth?

[barfle]

Hell, even I have one of those T-shirts! And I'm not that bad a marksman, given an opportunity to sight the weapon in.

[haggis]

"Who still thinks Bushsh (sic)is doing a good job??

Osama Bin Fergotten"

James Lileks

"I ask my Democrat friends what they’d rather see happen – Bush reelected and bin Laden caught, or Bush defeated and bin Laden still in the wind. They’re all honest: they’d rather see Bush defeated."

The gauntlet is thrown and I choose Nicole Marie to be the arbiter and judge. I promise to abide by her decision. If I fail to meet the following commitments, she can permanently ban me from B.com

(Ed. “Assuming that anything here is WORTH $100?!?!?!?!”

“Oh Please, are you kidding? OT’s babbling ALONE is worth that much in reduction of my blood pressure!!!!”)

I promise to donate $50 USD to any charity the group here chooses if George Bush is not re-elected President of the U.S.

I also promise to donate $50 USD to any charity the group here chooses if Geo. Bush is not re-elected by a minimum of 60% of the nation-wide popular vote.

BUT ONLY is someone else will make the same bet for Kerry. :p

To be fair, I'll waive the 60% rule for the Kerry supporter, he just has to win!!

So, if someone takes my bet and Kerry wins, I pay $100 USD to the charity.

So, if someone takes my bet and Bush wins, but fails to get 60%, I pay $50 USD to the charity.

The ball's in (someone's) court.

p.s. I'd be willing to raise the bet to $100 each way, but I wanted people to believe that I'm sincere, so, ironically, the best way to do that is to make a "small" wager

<small>[ 06-22-2004, 05:49 PM: Message edited by: Haggis ]</small>

[mmichaelson]

Haggis, I like Bush and want him to win, but I am not a betting woman (not even for charity).
I think this will be a very close Presidential race, and would rather watch the rest of you duke it out!

Happy Voting!

[Ajax]

Iliam,

I don't mean to play devil's advocate, but it sounds like it was just a Q&A post, and not an attack. For the sake of discussion:

Question #1:
I would assume your post/answer to be in reference to the political diversity of the United States landscape. The US does not have the diversity that our european counterparts have. Generally speaking, Americans are in the middle on most issues. Each person tends to have a few outsider opinions, but seldom feels very strongly on them. As for far-left, we have the Communist Party USA which has teamed up with several socialist groups. I have heard their membership runs as high as 40,000. As for far-right, only one legitimate group exists, and they are called the national alliance or allies, or something like that. Their membership was around 4,000 when I wrote a paper on this stuff about 4 years ago. They have never had any serious contenders for office, while the communist party has a long streak of putting people in office.

Question #2:
You are correct in assuming America has, for the last 50-60 years, passed legislation that is directly in opposition to the idea of "national sovereignity." Europe as a whole has done this at a greater degree than the US though. Maybe it is a natural result of "globalization"?

Your Conclusion:
I would have to respectfully disagree with you. President Bush has more of a global capitalist perspective than national interest perspective. That is reflected in many of his foreign policy issues during his term (Mexican nationals driving tractor trailer, extreme loss of manufacturing jobs, etc.)

Cheers

[Nicole Marie]

Originally posted by Haggis:


The gauntlet is thrown and I choose Nicole Marie to be the arbiter and judge. I promise to abide by her decision. If I fail to meet the following commitments, she can permanently ban me from B.com

Wow! Does that mean I get to pick the President? Yippee! I pick Kerry!

Anyway, I've had enough of these political postings. Can some hijack this thread please?

Oh and Selma, where do I send my check for one of those T-Shirts?

[piqaboo]

Haggis,
I sadly think Bush will win.

I dont agree that a Bush win means we capture OBL and that a Kerry win means we dont. So far, Bush is in office, and we havent caught OBL.
There isnt enough data to go on.

re Tshirt - WHICH god? :p

[barfle]

Taking your bet would mean I'd have to root for Kerry.

Thanks anyway.

Tweedledumb and Tweedledumber. One hell of a choice.

[Selma in Sandy Eggo]

Originally posted by piqaboo:
re Tshirt - WHICH god? :p

Answer:
A) Which ever one has the watch.
B) Does it matter?

[OperaTenor]

Originally posted by Nicole Marie:
Anyway, I've had enough of these political postings. Can some hijack this thread please?

Gee, I've never had someone ask before.

So,

HOW 'BOUT THAT CLARA SCHUMANN AND CLASSICAL MUSIC ON 45'S?!!

[haggis]

O.K. OT. Please, will you.....("I'm sorry, I just CAN'T ask him to do that....it goes against every thread in my body...."

Ed. "Bush...Kerry, it doesn't matter, God'll get you for that........"

[piqaboo]

I have no such moral fiber...

Hi Jack!
Whats your favorite fast-food sandwich?