” I'll be surprised if he gets your predicted margin tho.”
Well, since I’m already out on a limb I’ll just pull up that handy chain saw and expand on my prediction.
In 1972, The New Yorker's movie critic, Pauline Kael, won herself a place in political lore by expressing astonishment at the Republicans' 49-state landslide victory. "How could that be?" she demanded. "I don't know a single person who voted for Nixon."
Despite the polls, I don't think this election will be close, and this time the Democratic establishment won't be able to blame the Supreme Court. If they're fair, they'll blame themselves, but since this is politics, they'll blame the candidate.
Since this year began some of the most prominent Democrats and ostensibly responsible organizations have called President Bush a moron, a liar, a traitor, a fraud, a deserter, an agent of the House of Saud, a mass murderer, a mass rapist (according to the speaker at a National Organization for Women rally during the Republican Convention) and the new Hitler (according to just about everyone).
In addition, the mainstream media have come out so strongly and so viciously partisan against President Bush I don’t see them regaining the trust of a majority of American people for the remainder of this decade, possibly longer.
According to Evan Thomas, the Assistant Managing Editor of Newsweek, on Inside Washington in mid July 2004.
”There's one other base here, the media. Let's talk a little media bias here. The media, I think, wants Kerry to win and I think they're going to portray Kerry and Edwards I'm talking about the establishment media, not Fox. They're going to portray Kerry and Edwards as being young and dynamic and optimistic and there's going to be this glow about them, collective glow, the two of them, that's going to be worth maybe 15 points.”
And despite that the liar, fraud, et al is still ahead in the polls from 7 – 12 points, depending on which poll you like best.
John Kerry is not a bad man. He probably wouldn't make a bad President. But he is a bad candidate in a terrible situation. He represents the wing of the Democratic Party that is imbued with a sense of its own moral, intellectual, cultural and social superiority. In short, he is the standard bearer for the unbearable.
The Republican Party’s backbone is formed by the small businessmen and "sole proprietors" (barbers, shopkeepers, plumbers, etc.) of the American heartland.
That is why, under the leadership of George W. Bush, the Republicans have gained control of not only the White House, but also the Senate, the House of Representatives, 29 of the 50 governorships, and (for the first time in ages) a majority of the legislators in the fifty states.
Kerry now has 53 days to convince voters that a Bush victory in November would be, as his wife put it in Milwaukee on Monday, "four more years of hell."
The problem is, most Americans don't regard their lives as "hell" or Bush as Satan. The economy is doing pretty well. Unemployment is 5.4%, lower than in 1996 when Clinton bragged that he had reduced unemployment to 5.6%
Iraq isn't Vietnam, and won't be unless there's a draft.
The Islamic jihad against America isn't Bush's fault, either. A candidate who insists otherwise is bound to strike voters as detached from reality.
Kerry ought to know this, and he may. But his party is dominated, as it was in 1972, by people who talk only to one another and who are convinced that everybody despises Bush. They will judge Kerry by how hard he goes after the Crawford Beelzebub.
Kerry is a weak campaigner. Barring some kind of national disaster, his best shot is the debates. Democratic true believers think he'll kill Bush, one on one. That's what they thought about Al Gore, too.
Calling a presidential race in September is risky, especially a race that's supposedly close. But no guts, no glory. Bush will beat Kerry in a walk. 55% of the popular vote or better. And a minimum of 285 Electoral College votes.
If I'm right, you read it here first. If not, you can justifiably hurl jeers, insults, and embarrassing remarks at me.
Even Pauline Kael got it wrong once in a while.