Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

[Shapley]

Meandering Manatee Manuevers Mississippi, Menaces Memphis!

Okay, it isn't exactly menacing, but it was the only verb that fit.

I put this here because it ties in with the theme of this topic: The Manatee, obviously sensing the changes that will soon turn the Midwest into a tropical paradise, has come to stake his claim in the tropical waters of the Upper Mississippi, to swim among the mangroves that will soon populate the Ohio River delta, or to frolic in the warm waters off the Cape..... Cape Girardeau, that is. I suppose the rising oceans, coupled with the abundant water flowing down from the thawing North, will create a new everglade in the tropical waters of the Missouri Bootheel.

My mother always wanted to buy a home on the beach. Looks like global warming will bring the beach to her home!

V/R
Shapley

[Selma in Sandy Eggo]

Reestablishing the Permian Sea? Cool! Can dinosaurs be far behind?

[Shapley]

Can dinosaurs be far behind?

I think not! They've been among us all along, evolved as they are into birds. With the coming restoration of their native clime, I think we can expect to see the evolutionary cycle run full circle. What goes around comes around, as they say, and those huge, useless creatures will again be among us, replenishing our depleted oilfields as they die and decay.

Leapin' Lizards! Pteranodon will fill the skies once more, it'll be Dinotopia, only with blood and carnage! A brave new world, only it'll look a lot like a the old, old one.

V/R
Shapley

[Haggis@wk]

"Dinotopia"

Isn't that a vision problem?

[analog]

Your rambling manatee reminds me of that environmental commercial from thirty years ago -- an old Indian walking through the forest comes upon a littered highway. He sees the garbage flying out car windows, contemplates the scene and sheds a tear.

We had manatees in the neighborhood when I lived in the keys. One frequented our boat basin, it accepted handouts of lettuce and seemed happy when the kids swam with it. It had propeller scars on its back. Sometimes it brought along a young calf, and I was happy they had a place of refuge..

I can just picture that poor old Memphis Manatee searching for a quiet place to raise its kids without 300 horsepower speedboats overhead.
Good Luck to you, gentle Seacow!

[Shapley]

Unemployment rate falls to five-year low

Which explains, per the title of this thread, why it's so quiet here.....

[Giant Communist Robot]

Last May I posted that the market pointed to a slowdown in the economy at the end of this year--here's the gov's numbers for the GPD change this year:
I 06 , 5.6
II 06 , 2.6
III 06, 1.6
and there it is. But the economy is still healthy.

[Shapley]

The Fed's been trying to slow it down, out of inflationary fears. They tend to get nervous whenever growth exceeds about 3%. 1.6% is healthy growth, but it could be better.

I don't know where it is written that we max out at 3%, but apparently it is carved on stone tablet somewhere near Washington D.C.

V/R
Shapley

[Haggis@wk]

"Last May I posted that the market pointed to a slowdown in the economy at the end of this year--here's the gov's numbers for the GPD change this year:"

I assume you meant "GDP"? What has that percentage to do with economic growtg rate?

Productivity has grown at an annual rate of 3 percent since the first quarter of 2001, up from a 2.4 percent annual rate during the preceding five years.

[OperaTenor]

We keep conveniently forgetting that official unemployment figures leave out those who have been unemployed so long they no longer receive unemployment benefits.

You know, the lazy ones.

[Shapley]

We don't forget them, but they are such a small number as to be statiscally insignificant in an upward economy. Additionally, unless they are starving to death in droves, which would be reported as a significant incease in the number of deaths due to malnutrition and other hunger-related causes, they would be reflected in the sharp increase in the welfare rolls.

You may also want to compare the unemployment rolls with those of the Clinton years: Bureau of Labour Statistics Unemployment Data. You'll note that the current rate of unemployment compares very favourably with all but the last years of the Clinton Presidency.

Also, lest you believe Nancy Pelosi's claims that wages are stagnant, here is the Bureau of Labour Statistics Average Hourly Earnings. You'll note that the current wage increases compare very favourably with those of the Clinton years, and that April's increase exceeds any monthly increase that occured during President Clinton's term of office.

This ol' economy keeps rollin' on. If them Democrats try to get out and put booster cables on it they is likely to get they asses runned over.

V/R
Shapley

[Giant Communist Robot]

I assume you meant "GDP"? What has that percentage to do with economic growtg rate?

Oh! I did mean GDP. The Dept. of Commerce, on their economic indicator site says

Real gross domestic product (GDP), the most comprehensive measure of economic activity,

and is a measure of the size of the economy. Productivity is a measure of its efficiency.

I see Shapley is dragging in a whole bunch of statistics. I think the idea here is you can predict where the economy is heading by looking at certain measures of it. Good luck.


and

The Fed's been trying to slow it down, out of inflationary fears. They tend to get nervous whenever growth exceeds about 3%. 1.6% is healthy growth, but it could be better.

There's so many statistics out there I think you may have confused some. The Fed--also known as the Federal Reserve Board--does worry a bunch about inflation. I think you meant the CPI, an index of current prices to a benchmark year, instead of GDP. Prices can measure inflation, but economic growth may occur with or without it.

[Shapley]

GCR,

I think you meant the CPI, an index of current prices to a benchmark year, instead of GDP. Prices can measure inflation, but economic growth may occur with or without it.

According the news the Fed has been trying to slow down economic growth. The rise in GDP is the measure of Economic Growth. As I've said, they seem to believe that 3% is the maximum sustainable rate of growth (I don't necessarily agree with that, but I've not studied the history of it as thoroughly as they have). They manipulate interest rates in order to keep the growth rate under control. According to some economists, this manipulation results in the 'soft landings' our economy has experienced at the end of our most recent periods of growth. They believe the 'soft landings' have reduced recessionary fears and allowed the economy to recover more quickly after slowdowns during the past few decades.

You are correct that the CPI is the barometer used to guage inflation. The Fed normally focuses on the 'core' CPI, rather than the general CPI, because the 'core' CPI excludes food and energy costs, which are subject to broad fluctuations. The 'core' CPI tends to be more stable as it does not follow rapid energy price fluctuations, but does follow long-term trends in energy and food prices. Interest rate adjustment is the only tool the Fed has to influence economic activity. It normally has a rapid effect on GDP growth, although it's effect on the CPI is not always immediately evident.

V/R
Shapley

[Giant Communist Robot]

According the news the Fed has been trying to slow down economic growth. The rise in GDP is the measure of Economic Growth.

Well, Shapley, you're right. I have been glossing over their statements so carelessly I missed the economic growth stuff. But they never fail to explicitly mention inflation.

Interest rate adjustment is the only tool the Fed has to influence economic activity.

from the Federal Reserve site:

The Federal Reserve controls the three tools of monetary policy--open market operations, the discount rate, and reserve requirements.

Monetary policy being half the equation for manageing the economy; the other, fiscal policy, is in the hands of morons.

[Shapley]

Oops! I stand corrected. Or sit corrected, as it were.

[Haggis@wk]

"The labor market for American workers is continuing to improve, the latest government statistics showed yesterday, with job growth advancing in recent months and the unemployment rate falling last month to the lowest level since May 2001. In a report that eased concerns that economic growth might be faltering, the Labor Department reported yesterday that the jobless rate, seasonally adjusted, dropped in October to 4.4 percent, from 4.6 percent in September."

news story, New York Times, Nov. 4

"The latest information about the economy leaves no question that it has slowed down by just about every measure--housing and manufacturing, retail sales and job growth, and others. Even the recent increase in compensation is generally believed to be a sign of coming layoffs, not a harbinger of wage inflation. When business dries up at firms and factories, employers don't cut back immediately. So for a time, pay and benefits hang in there. As for the recent improvement in the unemployment rate, sorry to say, it's an aberration. The job market won't turn up in any meaningful way when the overall direction of the economy is down."

editorial, New York Times, Nov. 4

You really don’t know whether to laugh or cry

[Shapley]

Those editorials are written to remind us that, inside every silver lining, there is a dark, dreary cloud....

[barfle]

From the activity on this board today, what should I conclude?

[Shapley]

Trade deficit falls, unemployment drops, foreign oil prices drop, oil imports down...

And somewhere, in the soft glow of the taillights, Nancy Pelosi chases the economy, booster cables in hand.....

[Shapley]

New Volcanic Island Forming Near Tonga

No doubt a part of the forming of the new Pangea. A place for dolphins to strut around once they get their land-legs back. (I think the scientist have this one wrong - the dolphins are re-establishing themselves as land mammals in preperation for the tropical paradise that is to come. That, and the fact that they'll have to become agrarian animals to survive once all the fish disappear).

As I've said before - a bold new world full of wonder and excitement!

V/R
Shapley