Iran and the Bomb

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If Iran develops a nuclear weapon will it use it?

yes
20
87%
no
3
13%
 
Total votes : 23

Iran and the Bomb

Postby Haggis@wk » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:28 am

The horrid inevitable looms

This has to represent a nadir in diplomacy. While Iran and the world pretend that Iran will stop its enrichment programs we get closer and closer to that “Bwaa Ha Ha” mad Iranian scientist moment.

I think I’m going to try to run a poll
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Postby bignaf » Wed Aug 23, 2006 2:16 pm

obviously they're stalling for time. when they have the bomb (and they'll stall until then), the balance of power will be completely different.
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Postby barfle » Wed Aug 23, 2006 2:31 pm

Well, when we developed the atomic bomb, we used it.

And I'm pretty sure Iran won't use it agaisnt Syria, unless the missile malfunctions.
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Postby dai bread » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:56 am

I presume that when you say "they'll use it" you mean they'll use it first. If someone else uses it first, I have no doubt Iran will follow up rapidly, then it'll be all on....
We have no money; we must use our brains. -Ernest Rutherford.
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Postby dai bread » Thu Aug 24, 2006 1:58 am

barfle wrote:Well, when we developed the atomic bomb, we used it.

And I'm pretty sure Iran won't use it agaisnt Syria, unless the missile malfunctions.


Nobody else has, though. And the U.S. was in a major war at the time.
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Postby barfle » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:26 am

The US developed the atomic bomb in order to use it. I'm not apologizing for its use.

Iran's president has stated clearly that his goal is the eliminatin of Israel, and I believe he is telling the truth about that. If he gets a couple of nukes, Israel will end up with borders that are tighter than the Soviet Union's borders were. And they may still end up with several square miles of glass landscape.

The retaliation agains Iran will be complete, though. I've known a few Iranians who fear exactly such a scenario. It's not doomsday for the world, but I'm glad I'm on the other side of the world from that mess.
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Postby analog » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:09 am

Truman needed to end the war before the Russians rolled into Japan. There's no hurry for this guy.

My worry is not about one weapon but twenty or so of them, a couple locally by missile or flower delivery truck and the rest by courier into US cities. The darn things can be made not much bigger than a two liter Coke.
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Postby Haggis@wk » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:37 am

From MEMRI

”The Iranian news service Al-Borz, which is known to have access to sources in the Iranian government, predicted that on the first anniversary of Iranian President Ahmadinejad's government, in late August 2006, Ahmadinejad is expected to announce what the news service called Iran's "nuclear birth."

In addition, an August 23, 2006 article about Iran's reply to the incentives proposal, that was posted on the Iranian Foreign Ministry-affiliated website Tehran Times.com , implied that Iran's nuclear technology had already reached the point of no return: "... If the West is seeking to impede Iran's nuclear industry, it should realize that Iran has passed this stage."[1]

The following are excerpts from the Al-Borz report: [2]

"It is expected that the first anniversary of the forming of the ninth government will be the date of the Ahmadinejad government's 'nuclear birth.'

"... Together with [the celebration of] the anniversary of the forming of the ninth cabinet, the president of the country [Mahmoud Ahmadinejad] will hold his third press conference... where he will answer questions from journalists from Iran and from abroad.

"In addition to detailing the activities of the government at the end of [its first] year, the head of the government [i.e. Ahmadinejad] will officially present Iran's positions on: economic and cultural matters, the nuclear dossier, the activities of nuclear research centers, and developments in the region."


I think the world is about to change…..
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Postby Haggis@wk » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:52 am

Israel may “go it alone” against Iran

” He said there was a need to understand that "when push comes to shove," Israel would have to be prepared to "slow down" the Iranian nuclear threat by itself. “


Israel buys 2 German Subs

” In the face of Iran's race to obtain nuclear power, Israel signed a contract with Germany last month to buy two Dolphin-class submarines that will, according to foreign reports, provide superior second-strike nuclear capabilities, The Jerusalem Post has learned.”


Emphasis mine.

….REALLY change!
Last edited by Haggis@wk on Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Shapley » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:59 am

Haggis,

RE:
Israel may "go it alone" against Iran.


I rather expected that. They did against Iraq years ago. I'm surprised they've taken this long, but I'm sure they have their reasons. I believe that, compared to Iraq, the response will be considerably more severe. Let us hope they have all their ducks in a row before they move...

V/R
Shapley

BTW, I can't get your links to work.
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Postby Haggis@wk » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:26 am

Shapley,
Yeah, it's weird. If you grab the links and go to another screen they work.

Both article are available online at the The Jerusalem Post.
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Postby Shapley » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:28 am

Yes, I found the first one there. I was interrupted (by work, of all things!) before I had a chance to review the second. I'll look at it later.
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Postby OperaTenor » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:37 am

And all we can do is sit on the sidelines and watch it all play out.

What a mess...
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Postby GreatCarouser » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:18 pm

Sacred cows make the best hamburger.
Mark Twain
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Postby GreatCarouser » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:22 pm

Sacred cows make the best hamburger.
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Postby Selma in Sandy Eggo » Thu Aug 24, 2006 6:11 pm

"...American intelligence agencies do not know nearly enough about Iran's nuclear weapons program" to help policymakers at a critical time, the report's authors say.

Yup. We need better spies. But they can't do anything ethically questionable like, say, bribe, cheat, steal, blackmail, or tap wires.
The report relies exclusively on publicly available documents. Its authors did not interview intelligence officials.

Sounds authoritative.
The report suggests seven areas in which the intelligence community can improve its analysis and collection of information, and it specifically criticizes the office of the director of national intelligence, John D. Negroponte. The report says Negroponte needs to "clearly identify his goals for improving Iran-related collection and analysis so members of the Community know what they are supposed to achieve."

Nice to publish the plans, so the spied-upon are fully up to speed before the spies get organized.

I do not plan to defend the intelligence community; it is clear to the most casual observer that we're not in real good shape there. I'm just not sure that this is the best way to improve things. Do congresscritter's staffers have brains? Do they think about the potential consequences of their publications and political maneuvers?
>^..^<
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Postby bignaf » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:21 pm

Haggis@wk wrote:Israel may “go it alone” against Iran

” He said there was a need to understand that "when push comes to shove," Israel would have to be prepared to "slow down" the Iranian nuclear threat by itself. “


Israel buys 2 German Subs

” In the face of Iran's race to obtain nuclear power, Israel signed a contract with Germany last month to buy two Dolphin-class submarines that will, according to foreign reports, provide superior second-strike nuclear capabilities, The Jerusalem Post has learned.”


Emphasis mine.

….REALLY change!


I was going to post these.
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Postby bignaf » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:25 pm

Shapley wrote:Haggis,

RE:
Israel may "go it alone" against Iran.


I rather expected that. They did against Iraq years ago. I'm surprised they've taken this long, but I'm sure they have their reasons. I believe that, compared to Iraq, the response will be considerably more severe. Let us hope they have all their ducks in a row before they move...

V/R
Shapley

BTW, I can't get your links to work.


The Iranian program is much more extensive, more advanced, is spread out in many more places, Israel's inteligence seems to have less information about the Iranian program (but you never know), and most importantly, I ran has an excellent anti-air system. and some locations are out of range for Israeli planes.
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Postby Serenity » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:11 pm

Why would you bother to make something without any intention of using it?
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Postby DavidS » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:58 am

barfle wrote:The US developed the atomic bomb in order to use it. I'm not apologizing for its use.

Iran's president has stated clearly that his goal is the eliminatin of Israel, and I believe he is telling the truth about that. If he gets a couple of nukes, Israel will end up with borders that are tighter than the Soviet Union's borders were. And they may still end up with several square miles of glass landscape.

The retaliation agains Iran will be complete, though. I've known a few Iranians who fear exactly such a scenario. It's not doomsday for the world, but I'm glad I'm on the other side of the world from that mess.

Does anyone suppose that those crazed fanatics will be satisfied with the elimination of Israel, with no aspirations to destroy the rest of the civilised world?
Tel grain, tel pain.
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