Iran and the Bomb

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If Iran develops a nuclear weapon will it use it?

yes
20
87%
no
3
13%
 
Total votes : 23

Postby barfle » Wed Dec 13, 2006 10:49 am

Unless Israel gets taken completely by surprise (and I believe they are smarter than that, at least most of the time), they will respond in kind. Supposedly they don't have nukes, but how many people believe that?

I honestly have no idea what the US will do. I suspect that Israel can inflict as much damage on Iran as Iran can inflict on Israel, and unless there's a decent chance of there being anything left over to inhabit, I wouldn't get involved in a conflict between a nation that is willing to commit suicide over their hatred, and another that is willing to die defending its life. Two countries will cease to exist, along with a few neighboring areas. A century later, perhaps civilization will occur.
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Postby Haggis@wk » Wed Dec 13, 2006 2:00 pm

Unless Israel gets taken completely by surprise (and I believe they are smarter than that, at least most of the time), they will respond in kind. Supposedly they don't have nukes, but how many people believe that?


Actually, Olmert kinda admitted Israel has nukes a few days ago before denying that he had. I'm certain that was a deliberate attempt to make sure Ahmadinejad KNOWS what to expect if Iran starts anything.

Ahmadinejad has said, essentially, that Israel is 6 million people and even a two for one swap in a nuclear confrontation would be worth it to the Islamic world since it would result in the elimination of Israel.

I personally think Ahmadinejad is being optimistic in his pessimism. I suspect that a war that would lead to the destruction of Israel will suck in the U.S. and most of Europe; Europe will tag along on our coattails only because they are already within missile range of Iran and they would view it as a good time to eliminate that threat. Heck France has already threaten to retaliate against Iran using nukes (can you imagine the French uproar if we said the same thing?)

As for surprising Israel, when you factor suicide bombers (and I mean airplanes) into the equation then the “surprise factor” does reduce your horizons some, how much I’m not sure.

I have to admit that I’m somewhat optimistic that the Mullahs are beginning to view Ahmadinejad as a loose cannon. Regardless of his own religious convictions (and I’m personally certain they are as extreme as they can be) I don’t think the ruling Mullahs are as convinced as he that the road to the 12th Imam’s return is paved with radioactive fallout.

If he starts falling off the media radar then I’ll be more relieved
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Postby Haggis@wk » Wed Dec 13, 2006 3:38 pm

Lileks

”It’s interesting: if the Holocaust “conference” decides that the Holocaust didn’t happen, well, then the justification for Israel is specious and founded on lies, and the mullahs are justified in redressing a mistake. I have the awful feeling that terms, conditions and justifications are being set right before our eyes, and the putative leaders seem unwilling to acknowledge what most canny observers infer.

It’ll all make horrible sense. In retrospect.”


This is how I've been feeling lately
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Postby dai bread » Wed Dec 13, 2006 5:23 pm

I still say the little man in Teheran is posturing.

But as I've also said, we need to keep our knives sharp.
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Postby GreatCarouser » Wed Dec 13, 2006 7:12 pm

What do you think the French retaliation will be, Haggis? An additional export duty on Champagne?
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Postby Trumpetmaster » Thu Dec 14, 2006 6:15 am

dai bread wrote:I still say the little man in Teheran is posturing.

But as I've also said, we need to keep our knives sharp.



I hope you are right.....
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Postby piqaboo » Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:24 pm

I think he means it.
I think the Israelis think he means it. And that is why they "slipped" and let out that they are a nuclear power.

As long as his neighbors and the people of his country think there will be no retaliation, they may support his madness. My hope is that they begin to realize there will be retaliation (possibly pre-emption) and put a metaphorical leash on him.

Perhaps a few well chosen Japanese negotiators could help the situation. Those who can speak first hand of the long term after-effects of receiving a special delivery of chain-reacting nuclear material. Probably not tho, since nothing can get thru to those who dont want to hear.
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Postby dai bread » Thu Dec 14, 2006 7:08 pm

Jordan, Syria, Lebanon & Egypt won't be very pleased if the little fellow nukes Israel, especially if there's a westerly, northerly or southerly wind blowing.

Iraq, or whatever's left of it by then, won't be very happy either.
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Postby Haggis@wk » Fri Dec 15, 2006 10:04 am

Guests of the Ayatollah: The First Battle in America's War with Militant Islam

” When Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in New York in September 2006 for the opening of the UN General Assembly, his appointment book was full. He had breakfast at the Intercontinental Hotel with American academics and journalists; he chatted with the members of the Council on Foreign Relations about whether or not the Holocaust occurred; and he was expected up at Columbia for the university’s “World Leaders Forum” speakers series. Ahmadinejad gave his talk at the UN and later was greeted with standing ovations by 500 Iranian-American dignitaries at the Hilton. “We’ve really progressed,” he exulted before his audience at the Hilton, making allusion to his diplomatic forays to Indonesia, Cuba, and Shanghai: “118 countries have specifically supported Iran’s nuclear program.”1

The world seems spellbound in the face of this populist, who says what he wants and does what he says. Ahmadinejad’s limitless self-confidence impressed the Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, who in interviewing the Iranian President found himself reminded of the triumphalism of the Ayatollah Khomeini: “I sensed the same certainty that was expressed by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini back when this confrontation began in the late 1970s: ‘America cannot do a damn thing’” (Washington Post, September 24, 2006)…

… In the 1930s, some believed it would be possible to solve the particular problem of the Sudeten-Germans in negotiations with Hitler without considering the place of the Sudeten question in the overall strategy of the Nazis. In the 1980s, some believed it was possible to solve the particular problem represented by the seizure of the embassy in negotiations with Khomeini without considering the significance of the embassy seizure in the strategic conception of Islamism more generally.

Today, with the separation of the nuclear question from the ideological dimension of the conflict, this mistake is being repeated. Although the letter made headlines around the world, Washington hesitated to confront the Iranian challenge on its own terrain: that of ideology.

Policymakers focused on business as usual and thus missed the opportunity to present the real alternative facing both Muslim and non-Muslim societies: Does the world want to be oriented by life or by death? Does the world prefer individual and social self-determination or to be ruled by a clique of mullahs and their cult of death?


emphasis mine

I haven’t read this book yet and probably won’t unless my library stocks it. And that’s possible, the local libraries here is Plano are very solicitous of book acquisition recommendation.

Dai, I still think you’re whistling pass the graveyard.
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Postby dai bread » Fri Dec 15, 2006 6:07 pm

I hope you're wrong, Haggis.

But the U.S. could have a lot of help if it did its diplomacy suitably in the countries I've mentioned. I think their sense of self-preservation would outweigh their hatred of Israel & the U.S. There must be a lot of cross-border fall-out when nuking a country as small as Israel.
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Postby Haggis@wk » Thu Dec 28, 2006 1:23 pm

Plan B: Syria’s forgotten but dangerous nuclear program

” what really broke the camel’s back was a recent report from the well-informed Kuwaiti daily newspaper Al Seyassah. It quoted European intelligence sources as saying that “Syria has an advanced nuclear program” in a secret site located in the province of Al Hassaka, close to the Turkish and Iraqi borders. British sources quoted by the paper believe that “it is President Assad’s brother, Colonel Maher Assad and his cousin Rami Makhlouf, who supervise the program.”

This nuclear weapons program is based on material that Saddam Hussein’s two sons shipped to Syria before — and during — the U.S. war against Iraq. According to the Kuwaiti newspaper, this explains why international investigative teams found no proof of Hussein’s nuclear program.”


If the U.S. and the rest of the world refuse to stand up against a pre-nuclear Iran what are we going to be willing to risk after [fill in the name of your favorite terrorist supporting group or country] gets nukes? The world is about to enter a very dangerous phase in its history.
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Postby GreatCarouser » Sat Jan 13, 2007 1:47 pm

Here's an interesting article from Slate:
So, the marker was set, but on the ground, events were already moving ahead of it. On Thursday, U.S. forces raided Iranian targets in Irbil, Iraq, and detained five Iranian officials. As he mentioned in Wednesday night's speech, President Bush has ordered a second aircraft carrier, along with its support ships, to the Gulf. "Succeeding in Iraq also requires defending its territorial integrity and stabilizing the region in the face of extremist challenges," said the president. "This begins with addressing Iran and Syria."

It was Albert Einstein who once said, "You cannot simultaneously prevent and prepare for war." A renowned specialist on Iranian affairs, Ali Ansari, concluded, in an interview with Britain's Independent, that Bush's speech amounts to "a declaration of war" on Iran.


Did We Just Declare War on Iran?
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Postby shostakovich » Sat Jan 13, 2007 7:33 pm

I'm not sure if we declared war on Iran, but using the Bush principle of pre-emption, they have a perfect right to attack us. And I believe we DO have WMD and a nut in command.
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Postby analog » Sun Jan 14, 2007 1:18 am

If late night TV bores you here's an interesting paper on proliferation.

http://www.wws.princeton.edu/ota/disk1/ ... 934406.PDF

I didn't realze that centrifuges are nearly 100X as efficient as diffusion for enrichment. Syria just might be capable of that.
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Postby Haggis@wk » Mon Jan 22, 2007 11:15 am

”The next holocaust”


The second holocaust will not be like the first. The Nazis, of course, industrialized mass murder. But still, the perpetrators had one-on-one contact with the victims. They may have dehumanized them over months and years of appalling debasement and in their minds, before the actual killing. But, still, they were in eye and ear contact, sometimes in tactile contact, with their victims.

The Germans, along with their non-German helpers, had to round up the men, women and children from their houses and drag and beat them through the streets and mow them down in nearby woods or push and pack them into cattle cars and transport them to the camps, where "Work makes free," separate the able-bodied from the completely useless and lure them into "shower" halls and pour in the gas and then take out, or oversee the extraction of, the bodies and prepare the "showers" for the next batch.

The second holocaust will be quite different. One bright morning, in five or 10 years, perhaps during a regional crisis, perhaps out of the blue, a day or a year or five years after Iran's acquisition of the Bomb, the mullahs in Qom will convene in secret session, under a portrait of the steely-eyed Ayatollah Khomeini, and give President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, by then in his second or third term, the go-ahead.

The orders will go out and the Shihab III and IV missiles will take off for Tel Aviv, Beersheba, Haifa and Jerusalem, and probably some military sites, including Israel's half dozen air and (reported) nuclear missile bases. Some of the Shihabs will be nuclear-tipped, perhaps even with multiple warheads. Others will be dupes, packed merely with biological or chemical agents, or old newspapers, to draw off or confuse Israel's anti-missile batteries and Home Front Command units.

With a country the size and shape of Israel (an elongated 20,000 square kilometers), probably four or five hits will suffice: No more Israel. A million or more Israelis in the greater Tel Aviv, Haifa and Jerusalem areas will die immediately. Millions will be seriously irradiated. Israel has about seven million inhabitants. No Iranian will see or touch an Israeli. It will be quite impersonal.

Some of the dead will inevitably be Arab - 1.3 million of Israel's citizens are Arab and another 3.5 million Arabs live in the semi-occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip. Jerusalem, Tel Aviv-Jaffa and Haifa have substantial Arab minorities. And there are large Arab concentrations immediately around Jerusalem (in Ramallah-Al Bireh, Bir Zeit, Bethlehem) and outside Haifa. Here, too, many will die, immediately or by and by.

It is doubtful whether such a mass killing of fellow Muslims will trouble Ahmadinejad and the mullahs. The Iranians don't especially like Arabs, especially Sunni Arabs, with whom they have intermittently warred for centuries. And they have a special contempt for the (Sunni) Palestinians who, after all, though initially outnumbering the Jews by more than 10 to 1, failed during the long conflict to prevent them from establishing their state or taking over all of Palestine.

Besides, the Iranian leadership sees the destruction of Israel as a supreme divine command, as a herald of the second coming, and the Muslims dispatched collaterally as so many martyrs in the noble cause. Anyway, the Palestinians, many of them dispersed around the globe, will survive as a people, as will the greater Arab nation of which they are part. And surely, to be rid of the Jewish state, the Arabs should be willing to make some sacrifices. In the cosmic balance sheet, it will be worth the candle.


Very chilling and very scary. Read the whole article.
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Postby Haggis@wk » Mon Jun 04, 2007 5:12 pm

Reuters reports:

Iran’s president said on Sunday the Lebanese and the Palestinians had pressed a “countdown button” to bring an end to Israel.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who triggered outrage in the West two years ago when he said Israel should be “wiped off the map”, has often referred to the destruction of the Jewish state but says Iran is not a threat.

"With God’s help, the countdown button for the destruction of the Zionist regime has been pushed by the hands of the children of Lebanon and Palestine,” Ahmadinejad said in a speech.

"By God’s will, we will witness the destruction of this regime in the near future,” he said. He did not elaborate.


Well, he hardly needs to.

I predict that our State Department will start parsing every word to determine what he really means, because, goodness sake, he can’t actually mean what he actually said, can he?
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Postby dai bread » Mon Jun 04, 2007 7:15 pm

Haggis@wk wrote:"By God’s will, we will witness the destruction of this regime in the near future,” he said. He did not elaborate.


Well, he hardly needs to.

I predict that our State Department will start parsing every word to determine what he really means, because, goodness sake, he can’t actually mean what he actually said, can he?[/quote]

No, he can't. According to reports I read here, the Iranian Govt. is faction-ridden and the Iranian people are far from united behind Ahmadinejad. Indeed, some reports say he is definitely unpopular. The little fellow is still posturing, and what better whipping-boy is there than Israel?
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Postby barfle » Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:46 am

Haggis@wk wrote:”The next holocaust”


The orders will go out and the Shihab III and IV missiles will take off for Tel Aviv, Beersheba, Haifa and Jerusalem, and probably some military sites, including Israel's half dozen air and (reported) nuclear missile bases. Some of the Shihabs will be nuclear-tipped, perhaps even with multiple warheads. Others will be dupes, packed merely with biological or chemical agents, or old newspapers, to draw off or confuse Israel's anti-missile batteries and Home Front Command units.


Very chilling and very scary. Read the whole article.


The link no longer works, but the paragraph I quoted leaves out the fact that Jerusalem is home to very holy sites of Islam as well as Judaism and Christianity. While I have no doubt that Ahmadinejad is as bad a nut job as any I've ever seen (any guesses?), I doubt that his religious fervor would allow him to turn the site of the Al-Aqsa Mosque into glass.
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Postby piqaboo » Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:51 am

So there he'd send the dummies, knowing that Jerusalem is gonna get as much defense as can be provided, and thus draw defense from other targets.
I think he might just be crazy enough to give that order, especially if/when he feels himself threatened with the loss of his office.
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Postby Haggis@wk » Tue Jun 05, 2007 6:44 pm

Barfle, I'm not as sanguine as you re: the status of the shrines. Remember Amadinijad's been preaching for years that this would be the precusor for the return of the 13th Imam. You don't think he'd consider that a good trade?

He really is quite crazy
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