North Korea | South Korea

[Trumpetmaster]

I think the North is willing to go to war to get the focus of the people off their bad economy
and how sanctions will make things harder on them....

your thoughts....

[Haggis@wk]

Dunno,
All available evidence from a few years ago was that the North had the wherewithal to physically push to Seoul and, depending on grabbing a bridge (they are all rigged with explosives) across the Han river they might get a few miles further south before their steam and logistics ran out.

It would be a very violent and bloody war and almost certainly ou president will be faced with the possible first nuclear strike. That’s always been a kind of ‘open secret” that there is very little else we can do to protect our citizens.

Since my military days we’ve (finally!) moved the Americans off the DMZ but have actually put them, our fighters, SOUTH of their own families in Seoul.

The NKs could possible trap upwards of a quarter million American civilians and REMFs in Seoul. I believe the NKs plan has always been to bombard Seoul into with their horrifically accurate large rocket artillery.

Any American president, R or D is going to be hard pressed not to go nuclear rather early. He or She would really have no other option. We often forget that one of the early attractions of nuclear weapons was their affordability. We used to plan on putting nukes where we couldn’t afford to put 500,000 troops. That was the strategy in Korea in the 50s and even though that’s no longer the conventional thinking we’ve done nothing else to replace those nukes.

I can’t see how we can’t use them when tens of thousands American women and children are in danger.

My bottom line: In any scenario the NKs lose, decisively, but not without a butcher’s bill of casualties including American and SK civilians and probably a nuclear exchange.

[Trumpetmaster]

Even China (one of their allies) condemned N Korea and their nuclear test last month.
I don't think this is going to go well and fear we are on the verge.......
I agree with your comments...

[Trumpetmaster]

North Korea also has called the annual training exercises "an open declaration of a war."

this is going in the wrong direction....

[Giant Communist Robot]

ou president will be faced with the possible first nuclear strike

IIRC, Truman also considered nukes in Korea, but found the hilly and mountainous terrain would tend to contain the blast and minimize the tactical effect. A nuke strike to Seoul might end resistance as about 1/4 of the population of the South lives in the immediate area.

The theatrics of the Hermit Kingdom puzzle me. If they start a war, do they expect to win? Do they believe China or Russia would come to their defense? Is their strategy to issue threats to obtain aid and food? Maybe this is a sort of advertising gambit to up their price to the Middle Eastern nations that want to buy the nuclear and ICBM technology?

when tens of thousands American women and children are in danger

Once they have a reliable delivery system and weaponized nukes Pearl Harbor would be a prime target.

[Haggis@wk]

ou president will be faced with the possible first nuclear strike

IIRC, Truman also considered nukes in Korea, but found the hilly and mountainous terrain would tend to contain the blast and minimize the tactical effect. A nuke strike to Seoul might end resistance as about 1/4 of the population of the South lives in the immediate area.

The theatrics of the Hermit Kingdom puzzle me. If they start a war, do they expect to win? Do they believe China or Russia would come to their defense? Is their strategy to issue threats to obtain aid and food? Maybe this is a sort of advertising gambit to up their price to the Middle Eastern nations that want to buy the nuclear and ICBM technology?

when tens of thousands American women and children are in danger

Once they have a reliable delivery system and weaponized nukes Pearl Harbor would be a prime target.

I personally don't believe we're going to have a war. Every one of the Kims, (grandfather, father, and now son) have occasional bouts of saber rattling although I can't think of an earlier example that's gone as far as this one has.

I think it is very realistic to call Kim "delusional" in the clinical sense of the word but I don't think he's so far gone as to believe that China or Russia would do more than condemn him.

Although, now that I think on it I wouldn't be surprised if Russia might provide some kind of aid if Kim were stupid enough to try anything. I suspect that Putin would be more than happy to put a finger in our eye if he could do it without potential repercussions.

If Kim does try anything then it’s going to be a major world problem, especially if nukes get thrown about by either party. This remains a problem for us because we've deliberately put a bunch of Americans in SK as hostage/tripwire since hostilities….”lessened” in the 50s. I’d never be so bold as to claim that hostilities “ceased.” Too many young Americans have died in the intervening years and our troops still receive combat pay when they are on the DMZ. Even one day on the DMZ allows a tax free month so you can be sure that almost every combat G.I. gets one day a month on the DMZ.

I personally think we should have pulled out of South Korea decades ago. I see no reason why our troops (or their families!!!) should be there.

Whatever’s going to happen is going to happen if we are there or not and its not a price I think we should be willing to pay. The SKs, for the most part, don’t want us there as it is although I think that particular sentiment might change if there was a serious suggestion made that we should leave. I remember how the Germans wanted us out for decades until we actually started pulling out and they realized how much money our troops pumped into various local economies. I suspect that more than one Burgermeister now seriously regrets losing that caserne that was on the edge of town.

I personally divested any investments I had in companies that do business in SK years ago (except for Texas Instruments, who have a very, very small operation there making automotive analog technology components)

GCR,

I don’t think Pearl is a high priority as much as Hawaii is. I think that if the NORKS got serious, the only part of the U.S. they could hurt would be Hawaii or Alaska and face it, the population in Alaska would probably leave Hawaii as a primary target. I don’t think that military targets outside of SK would be a deciding factor in target selection. If they had a reasonable chance of hitting the west coast then California would be looking at a new lake or coastal inlet!

But…..I don’t think this will go much farther. They’ve attracted as much attention as they are going to receive short of all-out war. They’ll probably get some more grain shipments (for their military, of course) and some sympathy and possibly aid from some Third World despots. Going any further would jeopardize the goodies train.

[BigJon]

How many troops do we even have left in SK? I thought we were down to skeletal staff there.

[Trumpetmaster]

How many troops do we even have left in SK? I thought we were down to skeletal staff there.

from the Washington Post....

"North Korea wants a formal peace treaty, security guarantees and other concessions, as well as the removal of 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea."

[Haggis@wk]

How many troops do we even have left in SK? I thought we were down to skeletal staff there.

By treaty that figure is 28,500

Army: 19,755
Navy: 274
Air Force: 8,815
Marines: 242
ROK-U.S. agreed force level: 28,500

Half of those are allowed to have their families in SK so make that 20 -30K families, and almost all in Seoul, 30+ miles from the DMZ. I can assure you from prior experience that many G.I.s have their families there in what is call "unsponsored" status. They paid to bring their families in, many of them are Korean wifes who move in with their families. Regardless of the official status, in the event of an emergency the U.S. Govt. is responsible for getting all of them out of the country, which will be a mess.

[Trumpetmaster]

How many troops do we even have left in SK? I thought we were down to skeletal staff there.

By treaty that figure is 28,500

Army: 19,755
Navy: 274
Air Force: 8,815
Marines: 242
ROK-U.S. agreed force level: 28,500

Half of those are allowed to have their families in SK so make that 20 -30K families, and almost all in Seoul, 30+ miles from the DMZ. I can assure you from prior experience that many G.I.s have their families there in what is call "unsponsored" status. They paid to bring their families in, many of them are Korean wifes who move in with their families. Regardless of the official status, in the event of an emergency the U.S. Govt. is responsible for getting all of them out of the country, which will be a mess.

yes.. it will be a mess...
i just pray that North Korea backs down....
if they don't , I am very concerned there will be a nuclear strike....

[Haggis@wk]

yes.. it will be a mess...

i just pray that North Korea backs down....

if they don't , I am very concerned there will be a nuclear strike....

First of all, I'm 70% certain that the NORKS have been playing for attention and having achieved that will just stop the rattling. They have always been belligerent, that's their default position and will remain so.

Some third-world tin pot will award Kim "Dictator Most Likely to Piss Off the U.S." and the Norwegians will quietly bemoan the fact that they won’t be able to nominate Kim for a Peace Prize.

I can assure you that all the air bases on Japan have suddenly become the destination for a number of USAF fighter/bomber Wings who just happened to need a unannounced "exercise. “I would not be surprised if a few MEUs are steaming off of Iwakuni USMC base in Japan.

However, if I’m wrong then the military situation will grow dire, quickly.

I’m certainly no expert in NK but if they are stupid enough to start a war I have to believe they will go all out with a bombardment of Seoul and a determined push across the DMZ.

Don’t forget that we have been finding very sophisticated tunnels under the DMZ for years and of the four we’ve found (the last in 1990, I think) all of them were large. The first tunnel, based on the tunnel's size, suggest it would have allowed approximately 2,000 soldiers (one regiment) to pass through it per hour, enough to move an entire infantry division through in five hours or less.
I would not be surprised that there are tunnels we have not discovered, the last was only discovered after a defector identified it.
As I mentioned before, I think they have the muscle and will to push to at least Seoul and possibly further south before their logistics bog down. They’ll have t use land to move supplies since the Navy will have the seas closed to them and the USAF and USA choppers will be pounding them all over.
The real question is: Does the NKs have tactical nukes?? I’m not so sure. Long range nukes are a whole different kettle of fish and getting a battlefield nuke on target is harder than you might think.

If they do have them I’m convinced that they’ll use them.

Then the question remains will we respond in kind? Here again, I suspect that we will have to. And maybe even use them first if the generals can convince the president that use of nukes will keep the “yellow horde” out of Seoul and away from all those American civilians.

Politically a war on the peninsula will be a disaster for China. The NKs will surely lose and will the Chinese be willing to allow a unified Korea, friendly to the U.S. , to share a common border?
I’m not so sure and that means that there will be other potential conflicts with the SKs and possibly the U.S.; ugly, ugly, ugly.

But….I don’t think any of this is going to happen because I think the Chinese have enough influence on Kim (or his generals) to keep him from doing anything stupid.

[Trumpetmaster]

"But….I don’t think any of this is going to happen because I think the Chinese have enough influence on Kim (or his generals) to keep him from doing anything stupid."

Hopefully China has "discussed" this matter with them....
I pray you are correct.

[Haggis@wk]

NORTH Korea's latest propaganda video depicts 150,000 US citizens being taken hostage by stormtroopers invading South Korean capital Seoul.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/ne ... z2OHjuOJVg

Someone in the north has been reading our thread....

[Shapley]

Someone in the north has been reading our thread....

That Chinese hacking software makes it easy...

[Giant Communist Robot]

Someone in the north has been reading our thread....

The Chinese read "The Onion"

[barfle]

Chiming in a little late, but at least for now the whoopdedo seems to have settled down, or maybe it's just the Boston Marathon bombing that has taken over the news.

I'm pretty sure even a doofus like Lil' Kim knows that an attack on South Korea will make that nation an island at their expense. He's gotten his publicity and maxed out his credit cards again, so I'm hoping he'll go back in his cave for a while.

[Trumpetmaster]

so I'm hoping he'll go back in his cave for a while.

You have a way with words!

[Shapley]

He did just sort of drop out the news after the Boston Marathon bombings. Apparently, there is only so much newsprint and airtime to go around, so only the 'news of the day' gets coverage.

There was a big buildup claiming that April 15th would be the day North Korea would display their 'show of force'. We had a bombing in Boston on that day. I'm surprised the conspiracy theorists haven't tied the two together. If they have, I must have missed the report.