The future of oil

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Postby jamiebk » Sat Jan 13, 2007 7:32 pm

BigJon wrote:Piq, you can't be shown to be wrong because nobody has shown it yet. Corn based ethanol will get cheaper when bio-based diesel fuel becomes the prominent source of transportation energy in our economy.

We need to find the oiliest plant we can grow in our climate and turn it into fuel that is one grade above bunker to run our trains and trucks and start switching our cars over to it. Most of the (real) pollution problems from diesel are solvable now. Not true 5 years ago.


Amen...it is far more efficient to turn corn oil into bio diesel than to make al-key-hall outta it.
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Postby bignaf » Sat Jan 13, 2007 11:00 pm

piqaboo wrote:"it means thet it reaches a state of stasis in which counterbalancing fluctuations keep the essential stasis going"

aka equilibrium


thanks; not exactly what I tried to convey, but dynamic equilibrium is probably the term I was looking for. equilibrium seems to signify that opposing forces cancel each other out. I wanted to convey more of a swinging back and forth around the equilibrium.
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Postby piqaboo » Mon Jan 15, 2007 3:52 pm

bignaf, cool term. V useful too!

Corn uses too much engineering, insecticides and the like, to make sense for ethanol production. There are easier plants to grow.
For producing bio-crude... there might need to be a little genetic engineering there. Perhaps we can breed some bacteria which will make crude from the chopped of stalks of otherwise waste plants. That could be enough incentive for Fl sugar growers (oh what a boondoggle) to rake their leaves instead of torching them. that would clean up at least one state's air pollution noticeably.
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Postby Shapley » Mon Jan 15, 2007 4:33 pm

Surely this is the perfect use for Kudzu. Kudzu farms could be built in large, tower-like structures, to reduce the amount of acreage that needs to be dedicated to growing it. It could also be harvested from the millions of acres it currently covers. Who knows, we might even be able to burn it faster than it grows (although that would be a feat!).

V/R
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Postby bignaf » Mon Jan 15, 2007 7:05 pm

if they could make fuel-grade ethanol from Kudzu it would be extremly nice. I'll throw a massive party, you're all invited.
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Postby Giant Communist Robot » Tue Jan 16, 2007 11:22 am

I wrote earlier that I believe as the price of oil goes up, tech advances could allow the extraction from sands and shales; but there is more to this.

With current technology, as the price goes up, oil can be extracted from those sands. Its not prohibitively costly. Canadian reserves have been upgraded on this basis giving Canada the second largest reserve in the world. One estimate is a 70 year supply for the U.S.

Even larger quantities are in the shales in the U.S. When these become economically viable they may add another century or two to oil.

I can't see oil going away, even for something like ethanol.

I can't finish this thought as I have something else to do, so just imagine more of the same until you see my point.
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Postby Selma in Sandy Eggo » Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:41 pm

bignaf wrote:if they could make fuel-grade ethanol from Kudzu it would be extremly nice. I'll throw a massive party, you're all invited.

And we'll serve beverage-grade ethanol from Kudzu at the party! :toast:
>^..^<
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Postby The Punky Kid Rides Again » Tue Jan 16, 2007 1:11 pm

The Cynic in me believes the oil game will not go away because there is toooo much money involved.

Think about it. The industry almost caught its demise once when lamp oil we bumped in favor of electricity. Only to be saved by the internal combustion engine.

Autos are the only item I can think about that have not been improved over the past 100 years. Sure the gadgets, safety and such have been improved, but the drive train is essentially the same.

Heck, we have sent people to the moon, we can transplant organs, we can clone living creatures, but we somehow can't get past the mystery of fossil fuel???

C'mon..........

:rant:

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Postby BigJon » Tue Jan 16, 2007 3:18 pm

The Punky Kid Rides Again wrote: Heck, we have sent people to the moon, we can transplant organs, we can clone living creatures, but we somehow can't get past the mystery of fossil fuel???

There is no mystery, it's still the cheapest way to go.
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Postby Haggis@wk » Tue Jan 16, 2007 3:52 pm

The environmentalists hate to be reminded but, depending on the price of extraction, we have coupla centuries worth of oil here in the U.S.

Until something like fusion (cold, or at least no warmer than "hot") can usurp the price of oil I suspect your children's children will be having the same discussion in 2107…..gawd I wish I could live that long
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” Alexis De Tocqueville 1835
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Postby BigJon » Wed Jan 17, 2007 9:41 pm

Giant Communist Robot wrote:I wrote earlier that I believe as the price of oil goes up, tech advances could allow the extraction from sands and shales; but there is more to this.

With current technology, as the price goes up, oil can be extracted from those sands. Its not prohibitively costly. Canadian reserves have been upgraded on this basis giving Canada the second largest reserve in the world. One estimate is a 70 year supply for the U.S.

Even larger quantities are in the shales in the U.S. When these become economically viable they may add another century or two to oil.

I can't see oil going away, even for something like ethanol.

I think I posted this before, but oil recovery from sand and shale is very energy intensive. Most of the resources are located in remote areas without the energy infrastructure needed to recover oil on the scale that will make an impact on the global market. The energy recovery ratio is almost as bad as corn-ethanol in the States. The only way I see these becoming a viable source for world impact is if they are permitted to build portable nuclear power plants near the fields to extract the oil. We know how well that will go over with the left.

In the end it would probably be more efficient to just build the nuke plants near the population centers of the US
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Postby Giant Communist Robot » Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:05 am

BigJon wrote:

I think I posted this before, but oil recovery from sand and shale is very energy intensive


Regarding Canada, the issue is cost, as by definition reserves must be economically viable. The reclassification means extraction is possible now at reasonable market prices. There is dispute about how much of the Canadian oil is locked up in bitumen, which would make it uneconomically recoverable.

Shales cost too much.
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