political commentary moratorium day

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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby analog » Mon Nov 03, 2008 9:36 am

If we're going to quote Orwell,,,

Throughout recorded time, and probably since the end of the Neolithic Age, there have been three kinds of people in the world, the High, the Middle, and the Low. They have been subdivided in many ways, they have borne countless different names, and their relative numbers, as well as their attitude towards one another, have varied from age to age: but the essential structure of society has never altered. Even after enormous upheavals and seemingly irrevocable changes, the same pattern has always reasserted itself, just as a gyroscope will always return to equilibrium, however far it is pushed one way or the other.

The aims of these three groups are entirely irreconcilable. The aim of the High is to remain where they are. The aim of the Middle is to change places with the High. The aim of the Low, when they have an aim - for it is an abiding characteristic of the Low that they are too much crushed by drudgery to be more than intermittently conscious of anything outside their daily lives - is to abolish all distinctions and create a society in which all men shall be equal. Thus throughout history a struggle which is the same in its main outlines recurs over and over again. For long periods the High seem to be securely in power, but sooner or later there always comes a moment when they lose either their belief in themselves or their capacity to govern efficiently, or both. They are then overthrown by the Middle, who enlist the Low on their side by pretending to them that they are fighting for liberty and justice. As soon as they have reached their objective, the Middle thrust the Low back into their old position of servitude, and themselves become the High. Presently a new Middle group splits off from one of the other groups, or from both of them, and the struggle begins over again. Of the three groups, only the Low are never even temporarily successful in achieving their aims. It would be an exaggeration to say that throughout history there has been no progress of a material kind. Even today, in a period of decline, the average human being is physically better off than he was a few centuries ago. But no advance in wealth, no softening of manners, no reform or revolution has ever brought human equality a millimetre nearer. From the point of view of the Low, no historic change has ever meant much more than a change in the name of their masters...........
........................................................
After the revolutionary period of the fifties and sixties, society regrouped itself, as always, into High, Middle, and Low. But the new High group, unlike all its forerunners, did not act upon instinct but knew what was needed to safeguard its position. It had long been realized that the only secure basis for oligarchy is collectivism. Wealth and privilege are most easily defended when they are possessed jointly. The so-called 'abolition of private property' which took place in the middle years of the century meant, in effect, the concentration of property in far fewer hands than before: but with this difference, that the new owners were a group instead of a mass of individuals. Individually, no member of the Party owns anything, except petty personal belongings. Collectively, the Party owns everything in Oceania, because it controls everything, and disposes of the products as it thinks fit. In the years following the Revolution it was able to step into this commanding position almost unopposed, because the whole process was represented as an act of collectivization. It had always been assumed that if the capitalist class were expropriated, Socialism must follow: and unquestionably the capitalists had been expropriated. Factories, mines, land, houses, transport - everything had been taken away from them: and since these things were no longer private property, it followed that they must be public property. Ingsoc, which grew out of the earlier Socialist movement and inherited its phraseology, has in fact carried out the main item in the Socialist programme; with the result, foreseen and intended beforehand, that economic inequality has been made permanent.


http://www.panarchy.org/orwell/ignorance.1949.html

now i'll observe the moratorium.

over and out.
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Haggis@wk » Mon Nov 03, 2008 5:44 pm

GALLUP: Sharp Increase in Concern About Ineligible Voters This Year.
"As Americans cast their ballots in this year's historic presidential election, just 18% are very confident that votes across the country will be accurately cast and counted, down sharply from 29% who said so just prior to the 2004 election."


This has been looming for decades, notably beginning at the time of Kennedy and Nixon.
It’s a crisis of confidence that may turn out to be worse than the financial crisis, in time.
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” Alexis De Tocqueville 1835
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Tue Nov 04, 2008 11:58 am

This has been looming for decades


...and it will never end.
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Schmeelkie » Tue Nov 04, 2008 3:17 pm

Haggis@wk wrote:GALLUP: Sharp Increase in Concern About Ineligible Voters This Year.
"As Americans cast their ballots in this year's historic presidential election, just 18% are very confident that votes across the country will be accurately cast and counted, down sharply from 29% who said so just prior to the 2004 election."


This has been looming for decades, notably beginning at the time of Kennedy and Nixon.
It’s a crisis of confidence that may turn out to be worse than the financial crisis, in time.


Might also have to do with changes in technology. With lots of voting going to computers, people are worried about votes being hacked. I cast my ballot today on the ancient mechanical lever-pulling device I have always used in NY. Think this is the last year for it. Going to miss the crank and thud announcing that I have completed voting. did computer voting in MI in 2000-2001 - it was fine....
"Up plus down equals flat" Pumpkin, 3 yrs, 10 mo, July '07
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Haggis@wk » Tue Nov 04, 2008 5:28 pm

Giant Communist Robot wrote:
This has been looming for decades


...and it will never end.


I believe it will but not till the situation worsens to such a degree that people can no longer ignore it. The Democrats certainly aren't going to want to change anything, they've fraudulent won far too many elections as it is.

The problem will have to be of the same magnitude as the recent financial crisis; it could no longer be ignored. I have no idea what will trigger it, but it will have to spark revulsion nationwide. There is a chance that the new stealth "national identity" card will bring the matter to a head sooner rather than later. People will just have to show that card before they can vote.

I'm a "Trusted Agent" for the TSA, authorized to take applications for Transportation Worker Identification Credential (TWIC) and issue them upon completition. Right now all U.S. Maritime workers have to have the card by April 2009. The card has at least three technologies that I'm aware of and probably another couple that I'm not. When you get the card activated you have to input a 6-8 digit access code plue it also has digital images of both index fingers. The next step will be iris readers.

Pretty soon this card will be the defacto ID of all transportation workers; drivers, warehousemen, airport workers, etc.

When you present the card to a polling place there will be no doubt who you are; I see that happening nationwide before the next 10- 20 years.
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” Alexis De Tocqueville 1835
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby jamiebk » Tue Nov 04, 2008 8:31 pm

why not a chip implant and tattoo upon birth? It's almost come to that :shock:
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Selma in Sandy Eggo » Wed Nov 05, 2008 9:37 am

Haggis@wk wrote:... The card has at least three technologies that I'm aware of and probably another couple that I'm not. When you get the card activated you have to input a 6-8 digit access code plue it also has digital images of both index fingers. The next step will be iris readers...

I already have the DoD version of that rascal, with my picture on the front and a chip behind a little gold square, and my digitized index fingers on the back. There's a digitized signature somewhere, and an 8 digit pin code. Email IDs and certificates, secure site ID and access codes. Can't get on station without the thing, can't use my computer without it in the keyboard slot.

At least the ladies' room doesn't require an access code.
>^..^<
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby shostakovich » Wed Nov 05, 2008 10:27 pm

Now that the moratorium is over, ----------------- a giant sigh of relief. The only disturbing outcome, for me, is that the electoral vote is way out of whack with the popular vote. The electoral college takes away the only semblance of actual democracy in this country.
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby analog » Wed Nov 05, 2008 11:45 pm

I rather like the idea of electoral college.
It's our check and balance against the old saying "You can fool all of the people some of the time." Pied Piper protection if you will.

I always assumed it was intended to keep us from electing a Hitler or Mussolini in some hysterical moment... though we haven't really needed it in my lifetime. (First president I can remember is Truman.)

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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby jamiebk » Thu Nov 06, 2008 12:08 am

shostakovich wrote:Now that the moratorium is over, ----------------- a giant sigh of relief. The only disturbing outcome, for me, is that the electoral vote is way out of whack with the popular vote. The electoral college takes away the only semblance of actual democracy in this country.
Shos


The US is not a true democracy....it is a representative republic form of government
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Shapley » Thu Nov 06, 2008 9:06 am

jamiebk wrote:The US is not a true democracy....it is a representative republic form of government


Exactly,

Without the electoral college, we in 'flyover country' would have little or no representation. It would be possible to win the presidency merely by remaining on the two coasts.
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Shapley » Thu Nov 06, 2008 12:37 pm

Giant Communist Robot wrote:I can't do this. I need to crow when the Mozart of Marxism wins the election, and when the market goes up as I forecast. Ignore me.


It's the second day following the election, and the market is sliding for the second day, having risen prior to the election....

I realize there are various factorsat work - a bad jobs report, the election of a Marxist, profit reports, the election of a Marxist, continuing drop in the oil price, the election of a Marxist..... :)
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Thu Nov 06, 2008 1:20 pm

Shapley wrote:
Giant Communist Robot wrote:I can't do this. I need to crow when the Mozart of Marxism wins the election, and when the market goes up as I forecast. Ignore me.


It's the second day following the election, and the market is sliding for the second day, having risen prior to the election....

I realize there are various factorsat work - a bad jobs report, the election of a Marxist, profit reports, the election of a Marxist, continuing drop in the oil price, the election of a Marxist..... :)



Well, here's the post hoc explanation: investors saw the polls were so strong the rally started before the election. I'm not making this up; I've heard this from several sources. Its also true the rally occurs more frequently after Republican wins than Democrat. If the low of Oct. 27 doesn't hold, then its dismal.
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Shapley » Thu Nov 06, 2008 1:27 pm

I usually don't think a rally or decline immediately following the election has much significance. There are probably as many Democrats as Repbulicans investing in the market, though both want to make a buck regardless of who's in office. They are also smart enough to know that the newly-elected President doesn't take office until January, and legislation enacted by them won't happen for weeks or months after that. Even if there is a mass movement away from the market because of Sen. Obama's election, it will be a gradual drawdown as investors move their money into other avenues based on an analysis of President-elect Obama's proposals.

But, it doesn't change the fact that your forecast was wrong..... ;)

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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Thu Nov 06, 2008 1:35 pm

I usually don't think a rally or decline immediately following the election has much significance


Of course not.
There are probably as many Democrats as Repbulicans investing in the market, though both want to make a buck regardless of who's in office


I think the general feeling is that Republicans are more "business friendly."

They are also smart enough to know that the newly-elected President doesn't take office until January, and legislation enacted by


You have a lot of faith, Shapley.

But, it doesn't change the fact that your forecast was wrong.....



Yeah, I was wrong. What doesn't change the fact?
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Haggis@wk » Thu Nov 06, 2008 1:58 pm

Giant Communist Robot wrote: Well, here's the post hoc explanation: investors saw the polls were so strong the rally started before the election.


Investors are (apparently) beginning to notice that pretty much everything Barack Obama wants to do will hurt the economy.
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” Alexis De Tocqueville 1835
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Haggis@wk » Thu Nov 06, 2008 2:03 pm

Shapley wrote: ...They are also smart enough to know that the newly-elected President doesn't take office until January, and legislation enacted by them won't happen for weeks or months after that.


They do know that any legislation will be backdated to 01/20 at the very least if not all the way back to 01/01. I suspect that a lot of money will be fleeing the equity markets before the new year.

If nothing else, fear will drive people to take enormous losses. I consider myself to be fairly levelheaded and not prone to emotional reactions....and I just spent 2 hours with my broker setting up "sell by" orders that will automatically execute when parts of my portfolio hit certain lows. I will lose money but I will have cash that I'm afraid I won't have a year from now.

What's ironic in this is although I opposed Obama I believed his promises, it seems many of his supporters supported him believing he was lying; as I said, irony.

As I asked earlier, when will "buyer's remorse" begin?
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” Alexis De Tocqueville 1835
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Thu Nov 06, 2008 2:15 pm

Oh, jeez, now I have to defend this guy?

Investors are (apparently) beginning to notice that pretty much everything Barack Obama wants to do will hurt the economy.


There is some truth in that. Raising taxes and "spreading wealth" don't look helpful. Lets hope thats rhetoric. The Economist surveyed economists, and by a large margin they felt comfortable with Obama's plans for the economy.

Market activity is more likely related to bad economic news--I mean bad numbers, not Obama. The recession could easily occur before Obama takes office; and just who wants to be long in a declining market? The logic goes like this: bad economic numbers, poor economy performance--so one should be short.

Lets see if the tax break gets extended. Many economist prefer the government spending method for recovery, but it takes too long. We can't wait. We want help now.
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Shapley » Thu Nov 06, 2008 2:39 pm

Giant Communist Robot wrote:What doesn't change the fact?


My point that there are economic numbers that most likely trump any market movement resulting from the election.....
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Thu Nov 06, 2008 2:55 pm

Shapley wrote:
Giant Communist Robot wrote:What doesn't change the fact?


My point that there are economic numbers that most likely trump any market movement resulting from the election.....


Well! Looks like you're right about that. But that does discount the idea of the pre-election rally attributed to election forecasts. Personally, I usually don't give people that much credit.
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