political commentary moratorium day

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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Haggis@wk » Thu Nov 06, 2008 4:01 pm

Giant Communist Robot wrote: The Economist surveyed economists, and by a large margin they felt comfortable with Obama's plans for the economy.



That wasn't a scientific survey. The respondents were self-selected and were Democrats at roughly a 6 to 1 ratio, so it's not surprising at all that the majority are supporting the economic policies of their political choice.
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” Alexis De Tocqueville 1835
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Shapley » Thu Nov 06, 2008 4:20 pm

The Dow dropped 443 points today, following a steep dive yesterday. The jobs report figured heavily into the market's activity - disatisfaction about who got the top one was a big factor..... :shock: ;)
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Trumpetmaster » Thu Nov 06, 2008 4:45 pm

Shapley wrote:The Dow dropped 443 points today, following a steep dive yesterday. The jobs report figured heavily into the market's activity - disatisfaction about who got the top one was a big factor..... :shock: ;)


wont go into details but job search has dried up....
whatever jobs are posted... if you apply... it is rare you even get a call back...
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Thu Nov 06, 2008 6:11 pm

Haggis@wk wrote:
Giant Communist Robot wrote: The Economist surveyed economists, and by a large margin they felt comfortable with Obama's plans for the economy.



That wasn't a scientific survey. The respondents were self-selected and were Democrats at roughly a 6 to 1 ratio, so it's not surprising at all that the majority are supporting the economic policies of their political choice.


Did you read that article too? I don't recall which issue it was, all I know is it was a few weeks ago. I don't remember seeing that information. Lets assume its true, though. Then they either believe its the best plan based on its merits, or they're lying to make Obama look good. I don't have any personal experience with economists that suggests they are sleazy enough to offer an opinion they know to be wrong in order to gain some speculative advantage for their candidate. On the first point, its suggested then that because they are Democrats they will be unable to think clearly and not see the flaws in the plan. In general I'd agree that economists are unable to think clearly, but not because they might be Democrats.

If the election weren't over you might have been able to cite some other survey of economists that contradicted theirs. I didn't see one. Did you?

Ah, well, on with the Marxist march and lets Obamafy the economy!
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Thu Nov 06, 2008 6:13 pm

wont go into details but job search has dried up....
whatever jobs are posted... if you apply... it is rare you even get a call back...


Sad but true for most recessions.
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby shostakovich » Thu Nov 06, 2008 6:33 pm

jamiebk wrote:
shostakovich wrote:Now that the moratorium is over, ----------------- a giant sigh of relief. The only disturbing outcome, for me, is that the electoral vote is way out of whack with the popular vote. The electoral college takes away the only semblance of actual democracy in this country.
Shos


The US is not a true democracy....it is a representative republic form of government


That was my point, too. The word "Democracy" has been bandied around in terms of improving the middle east. The desired inference is that it is a wonderful form of government ------ like ours. We have a government of the rich (business and industry), for the rich (same group), and by the rich (via lobbyists). The will of the majority (democracy) is ignored. We, as a body, are not asked about what we want at any time except once in 4 years, and that "only semblance" can be reversed by the electoral college.

I once taught a course on ancient Russia, 860 - 1240. Early in that period the Novgorod region was considered an excellent example of democracy. Everyone who wanted to vote on an issue theoretically had the chance by voice and show of hands. When the vote was decisive it carried. When it was not, there was a struggle on a bridge over the Volkhov River. One side prevailed by tossing all the opposition into the river. It was way before paper ballots and recounts. Theoretically the issue was settled, but practically, members of the losing side often felt no obligation to adhere to the "decision". Interestingly this "democracy" (somewhat resembling a Keystone Kops Komedy) was a highly capitalistic society where the serious votes were made by landowners and businessmen.

Ah, how far we've come. :wink: :wink:
Shos
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:07 pm

Shapley wrote: disatisfaction about who got the top one was a big factor.....


Subjective opinion beyond substantiation. C'mon, admit it, no one really knows that, do they?

I know for some this has emotional appeal, and this is one of the big problems about figuring out the market. If your philosophy is comprehensive enough you can give a post hoc explanation for any day.

Earlier, it seemed you agreed with me:

Shapley wrote:I expect the Dow to recover, as well. I think the bottom may have been reached


...at least in general principle. Now it looks like sour grapes from the election.
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Shapley » Thu Nov 06, 2008 9:57 pm

Giant Communist Robot wrote: In general I'd agree that economists are unable to think clearly, but not because they might be Democrats.

If the election weren't over you might have been able to cite some other survey of economists that contradicted theirs. I didn't see one. Did you?

Ah, well, on with the Marxist march and lets Obamafy the economy!


I would suspect that the economists are Democrats because they like plans such as Sen. Obama proposed, which is rather typical of Democrat ideas. I believe their political affiliation stems from their concept of economics and other issues, not the other way around. Isn't that true of most of us?
Quod scripsi, scripsi.
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Shapley » Thu Nov 06, 2008 10:07 pm

GiantCommunistRobot wrote:Subjective opinion beyond substantiation. C'mon, admit it, no one really knows that, do they?


I added the winkie thing, what more can I do???? :rofl:


Giant Communist Robot wrote:
Shapley wrote:I expect the Dow to recover, as well. I think the bottom may have been reached


...at least in general principle. Now it looks like sour grapes from the election.


I still do. However, government can do things to screw it up in their efforts to make it better. This is one of the problems with the bailout - it can go very, very wrong. The Republicans knew this, and opposed it, but enough of them finally buckled to get the thing passed.

The UAW and the auto makers met with Nancy Pelosi today, to ask for more bailout money. The problem with the auto makers is that nobody's buying their cars. The trouble with the UAW is that their workers are not needed to work assembly lines that aren't running to build cars that aren't being bought. How is the bailout going to help them? When we bailed out Chrysler in the '70s, the problem wasn't that cars weren't being bought, it was that Chrysler's cars weren't being bought. The bailout was offered with a plan for a new strategy to persuade people to buy Chryslers instead of other cars, and it worked. Today, nobody's buying any auto maker's cars, so there's no market share to recover. Toyota is in trouble, GM is in trouble, Ford is in trouble. Washington doesn't have the solution, but they're so hungry to look like their doing something they'll end up doing the wrong something.

So, in a way, the guy with the top job could cause some concerns in the market. However, I stand by my statement that it's too early for that. he doesn't get the job for two months yet.....
Quod scripsi, scripsi.
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Haggis@wk » Fri Nov 07, 2008 10:08 am

Shapley wrote: The UAW and the auto makers met with Nancy Pelosi today, to ask for more bailout money.



So the UAW wants a $25 billion bailout and an end to the secret ballot ... Because Wagner Act unionism clearly worked out so well for Detroit.

Shapley wrote:I expect the Dow to recover, as well. I think the bottom may have been reached
...at least in general principle. Now it looks like sour grapes from the election.


It’s not sour grapes as much as it is fear. The market isn’t declining because a few people on Wall Street are nervous. 57 million Americans are either considering or already shedding their devalued stock because they are afraid what Obama will do after 1/20.

Why doesn't anyone say the obvious? The market was up when it looked as though McCain had a chance. Now that Obama has won -- as a direct result -- the market is tanking. Major indexes have lost about 10 percent since Obama was elected president -- a vote preceded by a steep rally -- and the losses represent the Dow's worst two-day percentage decline since the October 1987 crash.

Wednesday could have been a coincident; Thursday not so much. The DOW is up as I write this.
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” Alexis De Tocqueville 1835
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Shapley » Fri Nov 07, 2008 10:27 am

Haggis@wk wrote:
Shapley wrote:I expect the Dow to recover, as well. I think the bottom may have been reached
...at least in general principle. Now it looks like sour grapes from the election.


I didn't write that last part, that was GCR's commentary on my earlier post.

I said it would be a gradual drawdown, as people shift from that part of the market that may be vulnerable to President-Elect Obama's market-takeover plans (which is pretty much the whole market) to those areas that may be deemed to be safer. With interest rates being cut to the bone worldwide, there aren't a lot of places to put your cash where it will offer a return that will keep pace with inflation. Overseas markets probably offer the best options (Brazil?), but most of the industrialized world is following us into the doldrums. Pulling the majority of capital now will guarantee a disaster, and I believe most investors know this. There will be ups and downs over the remainder of President Bush's term in office. The savvy investor will extract his capital at the peaks, with an eye to alternatives to park it for the next two to four years....

Also, President-elect Obama is meeting with financial advisors now to craft an economic plan. That plan will likely offer some options for gain. I don't expect the overall picture to be good, but a lot will depend on who his advisors are, and whether they have an eye to government intrusion or market solutions. Remember, President Clinton was able to talk the liberal talk while acting in a primarily market-friendly manner. President-elect Obama may be as smart. President Clinton repealed taxes very quietly on the wealthy early in his presidency (the Bush I 'luxury tax'), while going on the air to tell the middle class that he "had worked harder than he had ever worked in is life" trying to find the middle class a tax cut, but the money just wasn't there....

The question is, is Obama a car salesman or an idealist. If he's a car salesman, like President Clinton, then he'll be able to sell capitalism to liberals by wrapping it up in a socialist package. Unfortunately, I think he's an idealist, in which case we have two months to stuff our mattresses....
Quod scripsi, scripsi.
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Fri Nov 07, 2008 1:13 pm

Shapley wrote:I would suspect that the economists are Democrats because they like plans such as Sen. Obama proposed, which is rather typical of Democrat ideas. I believe their political affiliation stems from their concept of economics and other issues, not the other way around. Isn't that true of most of us?


Sounds reasonable.
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Fri Nov 07, 2008 1:19 pm

Shapley wrote:I added the winkie thing, what more can I do????


Oh! Sorry! I missed that! I'm careless when I read.




because they are Democrats they will be unable to think clearly


Did I write that? Hmmm....
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Haggis@wk » Fri Nov 07, 2008 4:59 pm

Shapley wrote:... in which case we have two months to stuff our mattresses....


I'm buying gold.... :rofl:
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” Alexis De Tocqueville 1835
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Shapley » Fri Nov 07, 2008 5:12 pm

Haggis@wk wrote:
Shapley wrote:... in which case we have two months to stuff our mattresses....


I'm buying gold.... :rofl:


Really uncomfortable to sleep on.....
Quod scripsi, scripsi.
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Re: political commentary moratorium day

Postby Serenity » Sat Nov 08, 2008 4:10 pm

Stuff it with drugs! :mrgreen: You can sleep at night and make a living during the day!
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