Iran and the Bomb

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If Iran develops a nuclear weapon will it use it?

yes
20
87%
no
3
13%
 
Total votes : 23

Re: Iran and the Bomb

Postby Haggis@wk » Mon Nov 30, 2009 12:01 pm

Iran builds more enrichment facilities

The West seems to be sleepwalking through this development, wishing it would simply go away. It's doubtful that serious universal sanctions will be imposed, or that any such sanctions would even have the desired effect. Consequently, the probabilities that Israel must ultimately deal with the threat of a nuclear Iran increase daily. The dominoes will be plentiful and unpredictable.

We are facing the very real possibility of a nuclear confrontation between Iran and Israel, largely as a result of the rest of the West refusing to confront Iran. I'm afraid that the world is about to get much more dangerous in the New Year.
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Re: Iran and the Bomb

Postby dai bread » Mon Nov 30, 2009 5:52 pm

You're probably right, Haggis, but the alternative is a pre-emptive strike and I can't see anyone being happy about that. Indeed, it would almost certainly drive Middle Eastern nuclear ambitions totally underground, not just physically. Israel managed to keep its program quiet. I don't see why others couldn't.
Last edited by dai bread on Tue Dec 01, 2009 4:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Iran and the Bomb

Postby analog » Mon Nov 30, 2009 6:51 pm

We are facing the very real possibility of a nuclear confrontation between Iran and Israel, largely as a result of the rest of the West refusing to confront Iran. I'm afraid that the world is about to get much more dangerous in the New Year.


Last summer I had lunch with an old friend from Iran.
He said the word on the street there (then) was they'll build a bomb and Obama won't do a thing about it, worse he'll restrain Israel from doing anything either. Then Iran will be able to swagger and export terror with aplomb.
He thinks very little of the present leadership both Iran and here.

I suppose he's right they're not crazy enough to drop one on Israel themselves, for world condemnation and retaliation would be sure and swift for nuking civilians.
But it would sure put our kids on airbases and ships at risk. Makes me shudder.


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Re: Iran and the Bomb

Postby Haggis@wk » Tue Dec 01, 2009 3:23 pm

dai bread wrote:You're probably right, Haggis, but the alternative is a pre-emptive strike and I can't see anyone being happy about that. Indeed, it would almost certainly drive Middle Eastern nuclear ambitions totally underground,not just physically. Israel managed to keep its program quiet. I don't see why others couldn't.


It's been proposed that a military force take and hold Kharg Island, since Iran has to import gas and all of it goes through Kharg Island the Iranian "Man on the street" would be pushing his car to work fairly soon. I'm sure we have updated Ops orders for that eventuality right now. It would be relatively painless and wouldn't involve military action inside Iran. It would hopefully anger the average Iranian to get rid of the Mullahs and form some other type of government.

I seriously doubt Obama has the fortitude to order that in the event we are forced into some confrontation and will continue to try to negotiate with a government that already regards him a Eunuch; his current dithering and "Bush lite" manner over Afghanistan only confirms that view.

I suspect in the New Year we're going to see some serious violence in the powder keg we call the Mid East.
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Re: Iran and the Bomb

Postby piqaboo » Wed Dec 02, 2009 12:34 pm

If we take Karg Island, we'll be marketed as imperialist invaders in Iran and
the average person on the street will becomethat much more willing to bomb us.
We humans are not all that rational, sadly.

Analog's friend was right. Obama isnt only not doing anything and being nasty to Israel,
he's having the involved parties to dinner. Sheesh - what a putz.
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Re: Iran and the Bomb

Postby Haggis@wk » Wed Dec 02, 2009 12:40 pm

piqaboo wrote:If we take Karg Island, we'll be marketed as imperialist invaders in Iran and
the average person on the street will becomethat much more willing to bomb us.
We humans are not all that rational, sadly.

Analog's friend was right. Obama isnt only not doing anything and being nasty to Israel,
he's having the involved parties to dinner. Sheesh - what a putz.



I didn't say it was a good plan, just one that would involve few casualties and no B-52s over Tehran
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Re: Iran and the Bomb

Postby Shapley » Wed Dec 02, 2009 12:43 pm

At the anniversary celebrations of the take-over of the U.S. Embassy in 1979, protesters clashed with police. The protestors, instead of chanting the usual "Death to America" and other anti-western slogans were heard to be chanting "Obama, Obama, You're either with us or with them", them being the Mullahs. Sadly, Mr. Obama seems to have chosen the wrong side.
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Re: Iran and the Bomb

Postby Haggis@wk » Wed Dec 02, 2009 1:00 pm

Obviously more negotiation is called for


TEHRAN — A defiant President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Wednesday that Iran will itself enrich uranium up to 20 percent purity in a blow to Western efforts to stop Tehran's sensitive nuclear activities.

Ahmadinejad also said that even the Islamic republic's arch-foe Israel would be unable to do a "damn thing" about Iran's nuclear programme.

He reiterated that as far as Tehran is concerned, the nuclear issue is "over" and said the Islamic republic will "not back down from its rights."
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Re: Iran and the Bomb

Postby GreatCarouser » Wed Dec 02, 2009 3:01 pm

So let's see if I have this straight, Haggis? The proper solution is to leave a rather large, cauterized crater where the modern nation of Iran is? If not, then the proper solution is to make Iran another Iraq by some judicious 'nation-building?
If we 'nation build' do we just drop Afghanistan/Pakistan because what's going on there isn't worth our time/effort in comparison to what is going on in Iran? Perhaps we just decide that it's all an 'insidious conspiracy' by the Iranis and Al Qaeda/Taliban to divide and conquer us and use the 'cauterization' option on a rather larger portion of the Earth's real estate?

Maybe you prefer the 'Japan' option which involves surgically striking the Iranian nuclear facilities. Some seem to think that is a very limited, temporary holding action at best. If none of those 'satisfy' then I think you may be correct and Obviously more negotiation is called for...

My citation is different from yours btw....
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Re: Iran and the Bomb

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Wed Dec 02, 2009 5:08 pm

Well, the alternative to negotiation is a preemptive war. Sure, there are some issues underlying all this potential confict, but rather than try to solve them just start shooting.
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Re: Iran and the Bomb

Postby Haggis@wk » Thu Dec 03, 2009 1:47 pm

GreatCarouser wrote:So let's see if I have this straight, Haggis? The proper solution is to leave a rather large, cauterized crater where the modern nation of Iran is? If not, then the proper solution is to make Iran another Iraq by some judicious 'nation-building?
If we 'nation build' do we just drop Afghanistan/Pakistan because what's going on there isn't worth our time/effort in comparison to what is going on in Iran? Perhaps we just decide that it's all an 'insidious conspiracy' by the Iranis and Al Qaeda/Taliban to divide and conquer us and use the 'cauterization' option on a rather larger portion of the Earth's real estate?

Maybe you prefer the 'Japan' option which involves surgically striking the Iranian nuclear facilities. Some seem to think that is a very limited, temporary holding action at best. If none of those 'satisfy' then I think you may be correct and Obviously more negotiation is called for...

My citation is different from yours btw....


My fear has been plain from the very start of this thread and even though the poll is anything but scientific others posting here seem to share that fear. If Iran gets a bomb, they will use it. And please do not think that there won't be a crater in Iran, it just won't be one that we make. Israel has every right to worry. Iran's leaders have called for the destruction of Israel and once they have the means to do so that fear will only increase.

My other fear is that if Israel attacks Iran, Iran will attack U.S. elements in the Persian Gulf. I said on this thread Summer 2008 that:
If Israel attacks Iran, U.S. military and civilian shipping in the Persian Gulf will be attacked by Iran almost immediately.

If we have an aircraft carrier in the Gulf an attack on it will constitute an attack on a national resource and would invite retaliation just shy of nuclear weapons.

Based on information available to me, news, opinions, etc, an attack on Iran by Israel has more downside than up, especially for the U.S. and the U.S. Navy. We have some ground based resources in the area but the chances are better than average that the host countries will forbid any attack on Iran because they don’t want to be seen as supporting Israel.

In that event the U.S. Navy will be the only significant force available
.

Having said all that I'm convinced that this president will never authorized any preemptive strike so your concerns are put at rest; the Obama Administration will always (and only) negotiate.
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Re: Iran and the Bomb

Postby Haggis@wk » Tue Dec 22, 2009 4:07 pm

Obama to Iran: Stop laughing damnit, we’re serious!

The White House is warning Iran’s leader to take seriously a year-end deadline over its nuclear program, responding sternly to defiant language by the Iranian president. …
Otherwise, Washington and its allies are warning of new, tougher sanctions on Iran.

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said Ahmadinejad may not recognize the deadline but “it is a very real deadline for the international community.”


Yeah, because the West has proven so determined in the past that Iran should be shaking in its boots now
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Re: Iran and the Bomb

Postby Shapley » Tue Dec 22, 2009 9:41 pm

Thus far, all of Mr. Obama's deadlines have passed sans results. Does he really believe the world hasn't noticed. Hell, with his own party in control, the Congress hasn't seen fit to comply with his deadlines, why should the 'international community'?

And people complained because President Bush said he didn't believe in setting 'artificial' deadlines...
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Re: Iran and the Bomb

Postby Haggis@wk » Tue Dec 29, 2009 12:16 pm

Haggis@wk wrote:My other fear is that if Israel attacks Iran, Iran will attack U.S. elements in the Persian Gulf. I said on this thread Summer 2008 that:
If Israel attacks Iran, U.S. military and civilian shipping in the Persian Gulf will be attacked by Iran almost immediately.

If we have an aircraft carrier in the Gulf an attack on it will constitute an attack on a national resource and would invite retaliation just shy of nuclear weapons.

Based on information available to me, news, opinions, etc, an attack on Iran by Israel has more downside than up, especially for the U.S. and the U.S. Navy. We have some ground based resources in the area but the chances are better than average that the host countries will forbid any attack on Iran because they don’t want to be seen as supporting Israel.

In that event the U.S. Navy will be the only significant force available
.

It appears my fears have been confirmed.

Iran will attack U.S. bases if Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities

I just don't think that this will deter Israel. They believe (with good reason) that their national survival is at stake. The mideast is rushing headlong into a nuclear confrontation.
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Re: Iran and the Bomb

Postby Shapley » Tue Dec 29, 2009 12:43 pm

I don't think it is about deterring Israel. It is about getting Obama to put more pressure on Israel to not attack, IMHO. Iran knows how to play Mr. Obama.
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Re: Iran and the Bomb

Postby Haggis@wk » Tue Dec 29, 2009 3:18 pm

Shapley wrote:I don't think it is about deterring Israel. It is about getting Obama to put more pressure on Israel to not attack, IMHO. Iran knows how to play Mr. Obama.


I not only don't think Israel will be deterred, I also believe in the current environment an attack is inevitable. I believe the president is watching history being made while voting “present.”

I know a little about military war planning, I graduated from the "Contingency Wartime Planning Course" at Maxwell AFB (their motto is "Think War, Plan On It" I wear that tee shirt at my local gym, always gets comments :rofl: )

In my last job at the Air Mobility Command at Scott AFB I planned all the deployments of everyone in my command, lots of fiddly bits that several hundred other planners were doing at the same time and it all comes together in the Time-Phased Force Deployment (alternatively called the "Tip-Fid") for that particular deployment/operation. We were also responsible for preparing tipfids for almost every imaginable scenario that the "Seven Samurais" (seven very, very bright colonels that essentially ran the Tanker Airlift Control Center, where all this tipfidding occurred) thought of and they were very good at thinking up some really wild scenarios. Most were classified but one fun one was thinking how the USAF could airlift a - regiment? Brigade? I forgot – and all ther material to the south pole.

I remember working on several different ones that involved a different levels of military engagement between the U.S. ranging from isolated naval clashes to full out war. I suspect many of those same plans have been brought up to date and have even gotten more elaborate.

"Think War Plan On It” is probably a good attitude to have towards Iran, especially when/if Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities.
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Re: Iran and the Bomb

Postby Shapley » Tue Dec 29, 2009 4:01 pm

Oh, I don't expect it to have any deterrent effect on Israel. I do think it might sway Mr. Obama to try to persuade Israel to refrain from doing so, given his penchant for "negotiation, not confrontation". The only effect I can see coming from this is further strains on US-Israeli relations. Mr. Obama may yet figure out that this diplomacy stuff is harder than it looks, but I'm not counting on that, either. He will continue to blame his failings on his predecessor, most likely.
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Re: Iran and the Bomb

Postby piqaboo » Wed Dec 30, 2009 9:09 am

I wish someone would check his tax records so we could impeach him.
He'd be nuts to have an affair, which is the other current impeachable offense. Michelle's too good looking and besides, she'd hurt him bad if he did.
I wonder me if she's looking to be the first black woman president? I'd have picked Condi for that, next round.
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Re: Iran and the Bomb

Postby Shapley » Wed Dec 30, 2009 9:29 am

piqaboo wrote:I'd have picked Condi for that, next round.


I take it you and your husband disagree on that point.

Image

I have much respect for Condi, and think she would do well as president.
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Re: Iran and the Bomb

Postby piqaboo » Wed Dec 30, 2009 1:45 pm

Whether we'd like her, we may differ. I think OT would agree she has the best chance of achieving that status in 2012
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