Egypt

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Egypt

Postby Haggis@wk » Fri Jan 28, 2011 12:54 pm

Unfortunately — and I certainly hope I’m wrong — this may turn out to be a populist Islamist explosion of the sort that better follow-through on the original neocon plans for middle east democracy (then bashed by Kissinger et al. as unrealistic) might have forestalled. Had we pushed the overthrow of tyrannical Arab regimes post-Iraq (as some unsuccessfully urged) there might have been a wave of truly democratic revolutions, with Iraq explicitly the model, leading to Egypt as the “prize.” We are now seeing, at least potentially, such a wave, but the U.S. has been propping up Mubarak, the Saudis, and other despots since we lost our pro-democracy mojo in 2005 after the Cedar Revolution, for reasons that are still not entirely clear.

That means the risk that power will coalesce around the only organized groups on the ground — the Islamists — is much greater now than it would have been then, and we are likely to be less favorably perceived.

It’s possible, of course, that things will still go well — let’s not write off people’s enthusiasm for freedom — but circumstances aren’t as congenial as they might have been.

Now, Mubarak’s response by cutting off internet communications is likely to hobble the non-Islamist forces in comparison with the better organized Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood has a leadership structure and cadres developed over the decades.

Spontaneous democratic forces tend to have no inherent leadership and have of late come to rely heavily on social networking and other web-based communications to function and mobilize. Fragmentation resulting from communication blackouts may render ineffective any numerical superiority non-Islamist forces enjoy to the advantage of numerically inferior but better armed and organized groups like the Brotherhood.

Obama should give some thought to actions that lead to reopening communications over there.
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” Alexis De Tocqueville 1835
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Re: Egypt

Postby Shapley » Fri Jan 28, 2011 1:12 pm

Radio Free Egypt?
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Re: Egypt

Postby Haggis@wk » Fri Jan 28, 2011 1:40 pm

Our stock market plunged 139 points while I wrote the first entry. Remember the price of oil the last time the Suez canal was closed? Expect to see a Obama proposed UN naval peace keeping force in the next week or so. Regardless, I fear what is going to happen when a hard core Islamist state controls access to the Suez.
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” Alexis De Tocqueville 1835
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Re: Egypt

Postby Marye » Fri Jan 28, 2011 2:57 pm

Remember the price of oil the last time the Suez canal was closed?


No. :P I was a child.

Since I hold oil stocks ... won't this benefit me? :wink:
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Re: Egypt

Postby jamiebk » Fri Jan 28, 2011 3:15 pm

Marye wrote:
Remember the price of oil the last time the Suez canal was closed?


No. :P I was a child.

Since I hold oil stocks ... won't this benefit me? :wink:
yes..............but............

I will never understand the stockmarket:

Ford Motor Co. reported its biggest annual profit in more than a decade Friday, but its stock tumbled because results fell short of Wall Street's expectation.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -— Exxon Mobil Corp. is expected to weigh in with a profit gain of $2 billion in its fourth quarter next week, as the oil major caps off a period of higher petroleum prices, but it remains to be seen if the company sparks any big moves in its shares.
Jamie

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Re: Egypt

Postby Haggis@wk » Fri Jan 28, 2011 4:50 pm

Marye wrote: Since I hold oil stocks ... won't this benefit me? :wink:



Yes. I regret selling my BP stock. It had doubled at the time of the GoM leak and I chickened out. I did the same with Netflix as well, bought at 20 sold at 45 it's now at 217....sigh
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” Alexis De Tocqueville 1835
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Re: Egypt

Postby Haggis@wk » Fri Jan 28, 2011 5:03 pm

Events Moving Too Fast For Obama Administration.

Now Obama's got his "Sputnik moment", but it’s not 1957 any more, and Obama’s no Eisenhower. (Bonus Suez Crisis reference omitted, because that’s just too easy).
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” Alexis De Tocqueville 1835
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Re: Egypt

Postby Marye » Fri Jan 28, 2011 5:05 pm

Well Haggis, "the pigs make money... the hogs get slaughtered."

You made some money. That's good.
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Re: Egypt

Postby dai bread » Fri Jan 28, 2011 5:23 pm

Please, Americans, stay out of it. If Islamists take over Egypt, so be it. They're unlikely to be worse than the Wahabists of Saudi Arabia. Who runs Egypt is a matter for the Egyptians, no-one else.
We have no money; we must use our brains. -Ernest Rutherford.
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Re: Egypt

Postby Haggis@wk » Fri Jan 28, 2011 5:28 pm

The canal was closed from 1967 to 1975 and a little know Greek whaler killer and smuggler, Onassis, made out like a bandit buying up every available tanker in the world. The closure forced oil tankers (and there weren’t that many since most shippers counted on the canal remaining open in perpetuity) to go around the southern tip of Africa, adding days or weeks to sailing times and raising oil prices around the world. To this day, I believe, Israel can't use the canal.

You are seeing people with long memories pushing up the price of oil, and I suspect, gold on the belief the canal might be closed or at least designated as a combat area and negating insurance for vessels traveling through the canal.
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” Alexis De Tocqueville 1835
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Re: Egypt

Postby Haggis@wk » Fri Jan 28, 2011 5:31 pm

dai bread wrote:Please, Americans, stay out of it. If Islamists take over Egypt, so be it. They're unlikely to be worse than the Wahabists of Saudi Arabia. Who runs Egypt is a matter for the Egyptians, no-one else.



No one who depends on the Suez canal can stay out of it. It is vital to our Maritime trade as well as vital to National defense. If the canal is threatened again you can count ou the UK, us, and probably the french (who paid for it and still collect payments I think) to make sure it remains open.
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” Alexis De Tocqueville 1835
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Re: Egypt

Postby dai bread » Sat Jan 29, 2011 9:12 pm

I will probably accept foreign intervention to keep the canal running, but even that is doubtful. I note that last time there was foreign intervention, ostensibly for that purpose, Washington got heavy with the British and the French and made them get out. It is also doubtful that the Egyptians would accept it.

Any attempt at regime change or nation-building finds me dead against it. Haven't you had enough trouble in Iraq and Afghanistan?
We have no money; we must use our brains. -Ernest Rutherford.
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Re: Egypt

Postby Haggis@wk » Sun Jan 30, 2011 10:53 pm

dai bread wrote:I will probably accept foreign intervention to keep the canal running, but even that is doubtful. I note that last time there was foreign intervention, ostensibly for that purpose, Washington got heavy with the British and the French and made them get out. It is also doubtful that the Egyptians would accept it.

Any attempt at regime change or nation-building finds me dead against it. Haven't you had enough trouble in Iraq and Afghanistan?



Personally I, and most Americans, don't care if the Egyptians eat each other as long as the canal stays open.

P.S. you skip the 67 intervention. The U.S. forced the UK and France to get out of intervention in Egyptian affairs in 1957. The 67 war was Egypt calling the wrath of Israel down on itself; Washington had noting to do with that.
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Re: Egypt

Postby Trumpetmaster » Mon Jan 31, 2011 7:33 am

jamiebk wrote:
Marye wrote:
Remember the price of oil the last time the Suez canal was closed?


No. :P I was a child.

Since I hold oil stocks ... won't this benefit me? :wink:
yes..............but............

I will never understand the stockmarket:Ford Motor Co. reported its biggest annual profit in more than a decade Friday, but its stock tumbled because results fell short of Wall Street's expectation.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -— Exxon Mobil Corp. is expected to weigh in with a profit gain of $2 billion in its fourth quarter next week, as the oil major caps off a period of higher petroleum prices, but it remains to be seen if the company sparks any big moves in its shares.


insider manipulation IMHO..... look at the Wilpon family, owners of the NY Mets.... they made millions, then took out all their money (accumulated over 30 years) and closed thier account 3 weeks before the feds busted Madoff and the ponzi scheme. they did nothing illegal (nothing has been allegated of inside knowledge)
but something smells bad there? why would you "CLOSE" your 30 year account and take your profits with someone who made you so much money? Doesn't make sense to me.....
Ability is what you're capable of doing. Motivation determines what you do. Attitude determines how well you do it.
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Re: Egypt

Postby Shapley » Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:54 am

Quod scripsi, scripsi.
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Re: Egypt

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Mon Jan 31, 2011 2:00 pm

insider manipulation IMHO


I presume all those value investors believe they can trust the metrics.
Thinking is overrated
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Re: Egypt

Postby Haggis@wk » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:31 pm

Economic failure is not the sole explanation for the Egyptian revolution, but looking at the horrific rate of unemployment amongst Egypt’s 18-30year olds (a very significant part of the population thanks to the country’s disastrous population explosion) is a pretty good place to start when trying to understand what is going on.

And so is the surge in food prices.

the Daily Telegraph

The surge in global food prices since the summer – since Ben Bernanke signalled a fresh dollar blitz, as it happens – is not the underlying cause of Arab revolt, any more than bad harvests in 1788 were the cause of the French Revolution. Yet they are the trigger, and have set off a vicious circle. Vulnerable governments are scrambling to lock up world supplies of grain while they can. Algeria bought 800,000 tonnes of wheat last week, and Indonesia has ordered 800,000 tonnes of rice, both greatly exceeding their normal pace of purchases. Saudi Arabia, Libya, and Bangladesh, are trying to secure extra grain supplies.

The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said its global food index has surpassed the all-time high of 2008, both in nominal and real terms. The cereals index has risen 39pc in the last year, the oil and fats index 55pc. The FAO implored goverments to avoid panic responses that “aggravate the situation”. If you are Hosni Mubarak hanging on in Cairo’s presidential palace, do care about such niceties?

France’s Nicolas Sarkozy blames the commodity spike on hedge funds, speculators, and the derivatives market (largely in London). He vowed to use his G20 presidency to smash the racket, but then Mr Sarkozy has a penchant for witchhunts against easy targets.

The European Commission has been hunting for proof to support his claims, without success. Its draft report – to be released last Wednesday, but withdrawn under pressure from Paris – reached exactly the same conclusion as investigators from the IMF, and US and British regulators

The immediate cause of this food spike was the worst drought in Russia and the Black Sea region for 130 years, lasting long enough to damage winter planting as well as the summer harvest. Russia imposed an export ban on grains. This was compounded by late rains in Canada, Nina disruptions in Argentina, and a series of acreage downgrades in the US. The world’s stocks-to-use ratio for corn is nearing a 30-year low of 12.8pc, according to Rabobank.

The deeper causes are well-known: an annual rise in global population by 73m; the “exhaustion” of the Green Revolution as the gains in crop yields fade, to cite the World Bank; diet shifts in Asia as the rising middle class switch to animal-protein diets, requiring 3-5 kilos of grain feed for every kilo of meat produced; the biofuel mandates that have diverted a third of the US corn crop into ethanol for cars.

Add the loss of farmland to Asia’s urban sprawl, and the depletion of the non-renewable acquivers for irrigation of North China’s plains, and the geopolitics of global food supply starts to look neuralgic.


This is not going to end well.
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” Alexis De Tocqueville 1835
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Re: Egypt

Postby dai bread » Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:06 pm

So many people refuse to acknowledge that population control would solve Global Warming and CO2 emissions, perhaps not at a stroke, but certainly in the course of a century, say 3 generations.

Unfortunately, the Catholic Church refuses to countenance contraception, and decrease of population has to happen in the dark-skinned races, inciting cries of racism, as Caucasians and the paler Asians are already containing their population growth. Just check demographic figures.

As for Middle Eastern governments, they've all been on borrowed time for years. Revolutions are overdue. Black Africa next, with any luck.
We have no money; we must use our brains. -Ernest Rutherford.
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Re: Egypt

Postby Shapley » Tue Feb 01, 2011 9:38 am

Population control is sort of like nuclear arms reduction - if one nation engages in it unilaterally, they run the risk of being overrun by the nations that don't.

The Pope noted a couple of years ago that Catholics are no longer the leading religion, having been out-bred by the Islamic peoples, as well as suffering a general exodus of followers. Christianity, as a whole, still outnumbers Islam, but that lead is slipping.
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Re: Egypt

Postby Marye » Tue Feb 01, 2011 9:47 am

Al Jazeera coverage is excellent. I am live streaming. Can't follow tweets as there are too many with #Egypt.

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