Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

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Re: Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

Postby piqaboo » Wed Mar 16, 2011 5:48 pm

[quote = "haggis"]People are hungry, freezing, thirsty and dying now, today. THAT'S the story and it's not being addressed.

[/quote]
Yes, it is.

Chernobyl was not long enough ago to properly assess the cancer risk, which is most likely to show in those who were children at the time of exposure.

Jerry Pournelle cares to forget that there are a LOT of obsolete reactors in the world. Does he propose tearing them down and rebuilding them with each new design improvement? Solar and wind power will begin to look cheap by comparison.
I agree that so far, obsolete designs held up 'ok', but that doesnt mean business should continue as usual. There's going to be a need for lots of retrofitting.

Plus, lots of Japanese buildings that 'withstood' the quake, are like motorcycle helmets. They took the hit, they did their job, and now they need to be replaced, because likely they cant do the job twice. Lots of learning to be found there too.
Failure analysis is very instructive stuff.
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Re: Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

Postby Shapley » Wed Mar 16, 2011 9:05 pm

Once the reactor situation is stabilized, the damage assessed, and the dead buried, there will be a need for massive rebuilding. The news keeps asking 'can the Japanese economy recover'. I say the answer is 'yes'. It will be driven by construction, or rather reconstruction, on a massive scale. Postwar rebuilding created the powerhouse that became the Japan we know. Post-tsunami rebuilding will have a similar, though possibly smaller, effect.

Construction is the engine that drives most economies. If we chip in, we can all benefit together, and this disaster can be the catalyst for the next economic expansion.
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Re: Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

Postby jamiebk » Wed Mar 16, 2011 9:39 pm

Shapley wrote:Construction is the engine that drives most economies. If we chip in, we can all benefit together,


Try to remember that next time a construction spending stimulus bill comes up in congress
Jamie

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Re: Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Thu Mar 17, 2011 12:42 am

GE claims there were no safety problems with their reactors, they sent their inspectors to take a look and they came back with glowing reports.
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Re: Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

Postby Shapley » Thu Mar 17, 2011 8:28 am

jamiebk wrote:Try to remember that next time a construction spending stimulus bill comes up in congress


I always remember that. But Congress does not always understand that, and the things they package into a 'construction' bill often have little to nothing to do with construction.

The U.S. puts too many roadblocks in the way of actually letting construction occur. Much of the cost of construction is consumed by regulation compliance. "When the weight of the paperwork equals the weight of the structure, the structure can be built" - that is the general rule in much of America today.

We passed a stimulus bill nearly equal to the entire GDP of Turkey. Where did it go? Mostly to keep government workers working.
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Re: Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Thu Mar 17, 2011 4:44 pm

I see the radioactive plume is due to hit Southern California tomorrow. I'll bet there is a real frenzy among people trying to buy those iodine pills. Even though Hawaii is too far south to be in the predicted path of the plume the pills are sold out here. I haven't read anything that says the plume will be a problem for SoCal.
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Re: Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

Postby dai bread » Thu Mar 17, 2011 6:11 pm

buildings that 'withstood' the quake, are like motorcycle helmets. They took the hit, they did their job, and now they need to be replaced, because likely they can't do the job twice. Lots of learning to be found there too.


We found that in Christchurch too. Buildings that had stood up to the September quake fell down in the February one because they hadn't been repaired.
We have no money; we must use our brains. -Ernest Rutherford.
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Re: Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

Postby Shapley » Thu Mar 17, 2011 8:24 pm

Any engineer worth his salt knows that a structure is just a time delay. What goes up will most certainly come down. The 'Four Ws' are at work from the moment it is raised: War, Weather, Wear, and the WIll of God.
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Re: Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

Postby Selma in Sandy Eggo » Fri Mar 18, 2011 8:15 am

Giant Communist Robot wrote:I see the radioactive plume is due to hit Southern California tomorrow. I'll bet there is a real frenzy among people trying to buy those iodine pills. ...

Ah, no. No frenzy here. My haircut appointment is much more important. And then I have the Dorothy dresses to finish assembling, because (1) I'm tired of them being on the machine in pieces and (2) the Jimmy Beans people sent me an e-mail that my order has been shipped and I therefore have another project that I'll have to start. I have no time for panic about iodine when I can panic about incoming Merino sportweight wool instead.
>^..^<
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Re: Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

Postby Shapley » Fri Mar 18, 2011 9:06 am

Eat more salty foods. It's bad for the health, but now you have an excuse...
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Re: Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

Postby jamiebk » Fri Mar 18, 2011 9:16 am

Shapley wrote:
jamiebk wrote:Try to remember that next time a construction spending stimulus bill comes up in congress


I always remember that. But Congress does not always understand that, and the things they package into a 'construction' bill often have little to nothing to do with construction.

The U.S. puts too many roadblocks in the way of actually letting construction occur. Much of the cost of construction is consumed by regulation compliance. "When the weight of the paperwork equals the weight of the structure, the structure can be built" - that is the general rule in much of America today.

We passed a stimulus bill nearly equal to the entire GDP of Turkey. Where did it go? Mostly to keep government workers working.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Bay Area projects (alone) that were (are) funded, or partially funded by stimulus money:

Caledecot Tunnel 4th bore - $400 million (second largest project funded by the stimulus) http://www.aashtojournal.org/Pages/0813 ... ornia.aspx
Doyle Drive reconstruction (Golden Gate Bridge approach) $1,045 million http://www.presidioparkway.org/about/funding.aspx
Interstate and local road repairs - $1.1 billion
Transbay Terminal - $4.0 billion http://articles.sfgate.com/2010-01-29/b ... -authority
Ca. high speed train $8-20 billion http://www.cahighspeedrail.ca.gov/pr_de ... where.aspx

There are many, many more but I think you get my point. You asked where the stimulus went...here is your answer.

Here is a list of all eligible projects in CA. Obviously, there is not enough money to fund them all: http://stimuluswatch.org/index.php/project/by_state/CA
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Re: Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

Postby Shapley » Fri Mar 18, 2011 12:37 pm

Your link for the Caldecott Tunnel shows that that 'shovel ready' project didn't begin drilling until August of 2010, nearly a year after the recession was declared at an end, and full year-and-a-half after the stimulus was passed. That would indicate that the vast majority of the monies spent on the project up to that point were for administration, which kind of supports my point.
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Re: Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

Postby jamiebk » Fri Mar 18, 2011 12:45 pm

Shapley wrote:Your link for the Caldecott Tunnel shows that that 'shovel ready' project didn't begin drilling until August of 2010, nearly a year after the recession was declared at an end, and full year-and-a-half after the stimulus was passed. That would indicate that the vast majority of the monies spent on the project up to that point were for administration, which kind of supports my point.


The project would not have started were it not for the funding. Techincally you may have felt that the recession was over by virtue of your strict definition...however, employment has far from recovered and that is certainly addressed by putting people to work on these and other such projects. Form most, the recession won't end until and unless they have a job.
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Re: Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Fri Mar 18, 2011 1:24 pm

Stimuluswatch.org lists the largest recipients as state fiscal funds, and these are grants so they won't have to be repaid. Coincidentally enough, the largest contract, which was awarded Jan 2008, is for deactivating the Savannah River nuclear plant.
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Re: Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

Postby Shapley » Fri Mar 18, 2011 2:30 pm

Giant Communist Robot wrote:Coincidentally enough, the largest contract, which was awarded Jan 2008, is for deactivating the Savannah River nuclear plant.


That would put it awarded 11 months before the stimulus was signed!
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Re: Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Fri Mar 18, 2011 2:46 pm

The job was awarded, but stimulus money came later. Check the site for details. I'd post them, but it really makes a lot of clutter.
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Re: Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

Postby Shapley » Fri Mar 18, 2011 3:21 pm

I had looked at the site earlier, but it is, as you say, a bit of a clutter.

If the project had already been awarded, then all the stimulus would have done is re-shift the source of the funds. Similarly, one cannot say that the Caldecott Tunnel project had any impact on ending the recession, since the recession was ended before the tunnel was begun.

I have nothing against the government funding needed projects. Building and maintaining 'needful' projects is authorized by the Constitution:

""To exercise exclusive Legislation in all cases whatsoever, over such district (not exceeding ten miles square) as may, by cession of particular States, and the acceptance of Congress, become the seat of the government of the United States, and to exercise like authority over all places purchased by the consent of the Legislature of the State in which the same shall be, for the erection of forts, magazines, arsenals, dock-yards, and other needful buildings;" emphasis mine

I've driven the interestates and backhighways enough to know that they are in need of upgrade and repair.

Some things, on the other hand, have become expensive nuisances that we can't get shed of. We've undertaken the ownership of things that do not meet the definition of 'needful and, having acquired them, find ourselves forced to pay maintenance and upkeep, even when we can ill afford it.
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Re: Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Sat Mar 19, 2011 1:40 pm

UBS, inline with Shapley's comments about the Japanese economy growing during reconstruction, has downgraded their estimate for Japan's GDP in 2011 but upgraded their 2012 estimate by a really big jump.
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Re: Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

Postby piqaboo » Mon Mar 21, 2011 2:16 pm

Time to buy tractor stock. Do the Japanese prefer Caterpillar, John Deere or Massey?
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Re: Massive Earthquake In Japan Triggers Tsunamis

Postby Shapley » Mon Mar 21, 2011 2:27 pm

Toshiba and Daewo, I think...
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