Will Europe Survive?

[Haggis@wk]

The European Central Bank could soon bow to pressure to print money to prevent a further escalation of the euro zone's debt crisis, with respondents in a Reuters poll giving an even probability the ECB would adopt a policy of quantitative easing.

Good! Maybe their QE 1 will help our QE 1 & 2

[BigJon]

Are you sure the water article isn't from the Onion?

[Haggis@wk]

An interesting article on capital flight and forced repatriation of Greek fund.

[dai bread]

Reads like the Greek Govt. is getting serious about tax-collecting. About time, from what I read.

[Haggis@wk]

Reads like the Greek Govt. is getting serious about tax-collecting. About time, from what I read.

You miss the point. It's not taxes the Greek govt wants return, it's capital. That the same as your government forbiding you to invest in Aussie bonds with your after tax income. They want all the Greek capital in Greek banks. The next step will be to ban the ownership of gold.

[Shapley]

You miss the point. It's not taxes the Greek govt wants return, it's capital. That the same as your government forbiding you to invest in Aussie bonds with your after tax income. They want all the Greek capital in Greek banks. The next step will be to ban the ownership of gold.

It seems to me that Great Britain sought to limit capital flight in the aftermath of World War II, and retained laws to limit it for decades. I think Margaret Thatcher lifted some of those controls in the 1980s.

[Haggis@wk]

EUROPE: Prepare for riots in euro collapse, Foreign Office warns.

“British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expats through the collapse of the single currency, amid new fears for Italy and Spain.”

Not such a big deal though. As a previous war planner I use to routinely update plans to evacuate AmCits from just about every country in Europe “just in case X happened”

UPDATE: Euro May Unravel Before the Region’s Governments Act to Save It, UBS Says.

[Giant Communist Robot]

This recent idea where the IMF would bail out Italy has all the slickness of the non-triggered swaps deal. The IMF doesn't have enough on hand to bail Italy, so there this thought that the ECB would loan them some money. See? The ECB cannot legally loan money to Italy, so they loan it to the IMF who then loans it to Italy. I don't think this is gonna happen.

Keep in mind that nearly 20% of the IMF budget comes from the U.S.; the political reaction might harm Obama.

[Giant Communist Robot]

Now that Spain is on the bailout queue, the ECB needs to find a solution to make everyone happy. Things seem to be getting worse in Europe.

[Giant Communist Robot]

Not such a big deal though.

Governments and the military must have plans ready for even the most unlikely events, just in case they happen. Nothing to see here, move along.

[Giant Communist Robot]

From The Economist

During the credit boom, cheap capital flowed into Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain to finance trade deficits and housing booms. As a result, the net foreign liabilities—what businesses, householders and government owe to foreigners, less the foreign assets they own—of all four are close to 100% of GDP. (By comparison, America’s net foreign liabilities are 17% of GDP.)

...and the balance of our liabilities is owed to ourselves. The article, by the way, says there is a high likelihood the Euro will implode in a matter of a few weeks.

[Haggis@wk]

From The Economist

The article, by the way, says there is a high likelihood the Euro will implode in a matter of a few weeks.

Wonder if my old Punts, Marks, and Lire will still be good?

[Giant Communist Robot]

It looks like the market was thrilled that central banks stepped in and guaranteed cheap dollars for European banks. Like I said before, in a balance sheet recession with a liquidity trap the underlying problem is the asset bubble, which must be dealt with before any sustainable improvement can be made. I think this is a temporary measure, not a solution. More trouble is on the way.

From CNBC:

The participation of the central banks of Canada, England, Japan and Switzerland is more of an effort to show that all the central bankers are working together than any expectation that there will be lots of dollar borrowings under their facility.

...so the money to do this will be coming from the U.S. What a shock! We are not bailing them, rather a kind of QE action.

[Haggis@wk]

Fiddling as the Euro Burns”

At the Berlaymont, the Commission HQ, on Thursday, they were proudly launching their "better airports package." "There is no Commission proposal for the auctioning of new airport capacity," explained an official. "The decision was to go ahead with liberalising the secondary trading of existing slots." Across the road the European Council, the ministerial decision making body, was busy on a resolution deciding that member states must "combat negative stereotypes regarding older persons" and demanding that "optimism has to prevail in the EU." The week before, the Commission announced a new drive to "protect our sharks," proclaiming it a "very good day, not just for European sharks, but for sharks worldwide."

[Giant Communist Robot]

Goldman Sachs is forecasting a recession for Europe next year--maybe a full 0.8% contraction.

[Shapley]

...proclaiming it a "very good day, not just for European sharks, but for sharks worldwide."

Well, they do seem to be circling...

[Giant Communist Robot]

I don't think these themes of austerity and higher taxes are going to stimulate growth. I look and see trouble down the road for Europe.

[dai bread]

Austerity and cut-backs take money out of the system. There will be a recession n Europe without a doubt, if there isn't one already, and I am sure the financial seas of Europe are now shark-infested.

[Haggis@wk]

Anxious Greeks Emptying Their Bank Accounts

Many Greeks are draining their savings accounts because they are out of work, face rising taxes or are afraid the country will be forced to leave the euro zone. By withdrawing money, they are forcing banks to scale back their lending -- and are inadvertently making the recession even worse.

This parallels something I posted earlier about fears that the Greek Government will nationalized and/or seize Greeks savings. I think it’s going to get worse. I think that fear is the main motivator now, an ugly situation that leads to violence and worse.

[Haggis@wk]

...so the money to do this will be coming from the U.S. What a shock! We are not bailing them, rather a kind of QE action.

Help from abroad also seemed unlikely

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the Federal Reserve has no plans to give money to the International Monetary Fund to bolster Europe's bailout fund.

Is anyone else confused???!?!?!?