Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

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Re: Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Fri Feb 17, 2012 10:33 am

That's a lot of stuff to read, Shapley. I'll get back to it later. In the meantime, J.P.Morgan called a bottom for the housing market this morning.
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Re: Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

Postby Shapley » Fri Feb 17, 2012 10:49 am

I haven't seen where they 'called a bottom', athough I see several links from a month ago in which they said we were 'near bottom', and one link from last week in which their CEO is described as 'bullish' on housing.

I haven't had time to read throuth any of them, yet.
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Re: Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

Postby Shapley » Fri Feb 17, 2012 11:23 am

One reason, I think, that customers are waiting until the last minute before purchasing capital equipment seems to be a desire to wait until their own clients have 'signed on the bottom line'. That is, they won't order the equipment to produce product until they are sure they have sales for the product they produce 'locked in'. More of that refusal to stick their necks out, I reckon.

Once their clients sign on the bottom line, they are obligated to produce, so they need the equipment online in short order, putting the onus on their suppliers to produce.

Oh, well. If it was easy, everyone would be doing it. Success is achieved not by doing the ordinary, but by doing the difficult and, occassionally, by doing the miraculous.
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Re: Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Fri Feb 17, 2012 11:32 am

I haven't seen where they 'called a bottom',


I saw it in an interview on CNBC
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Re: Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

Postby Shapley » Fri Feb 17, 2012 11:34 am

Ah! I so seldom watch television anymore. If it ain't on Google, it ain't happened... :)
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Re: Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Fri Feb 17, 2012 11:45 am

OK, here's a linkie. In the interview many points for the call were covered, but most of the hits--including one from CNBC--didn't cover those points. This link touches on a few. Bisignano nor Chan were the interviewee. I don't remember his name.
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Re: Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

Postby Shapley » Fri Feb 17, 2012 12:01 pm

That looks consistent with the January statements by Jamie Dimon, that the market was 'near bottom' but could remain there for a year or so:

J.P. Morgan - Housing Market 'Near Bottom'

(I don't know what happened when I tried to post that link. I've replaced it with a another, since I couldn't find the WPJ link I originally cited)
Last edited by Shapley on Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Fri Feb 17, 2012 1:31 pm

the market was 'near bottom' but could remain there for a year
Most expect something like this. No one thinks there'll be much near-term improvement.
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Re: Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:40 pm

consistent with the January statements by Jamie Dimon


I didn't see Dimon's call. I don't know how much credence they really have, though. Moody's wants to take them down three notches. At least my opinion is independent from theirs.
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Re: Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:44 pm

since I couldn't find the WPJ


What's WPJ?
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Re: Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

Postby Shapley » Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:54 pm

Giant Communist Robot wrote:
since I couldn't find the WPJ


What's WPJ?


It's an indication that typing and my proofreading need a lot of work. ; )

It's supposed to be WSJ (Wall Street Journal) [Oops!]
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Re: Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

Postby Haggis@wk » Fri Feb 17, 2012 5:13 pm

One of my poker buddies owns a medial billing service. He told us last week that he won't hire new staff because he's afraid what Obamacare's going to do to his current staff. As a result he said he had turned down additional work becase his curent staff, 9, can't do the work.
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” Alexis De Tocqueville 1835
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Re: Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Mon Feb 20, 2012 12:44 pm

As an investor, I like to have an idea of what's going on in the market, and that means watching the two key items--inflation and interest rates. Currently I keep track of about 60 economic indicators in a spreadsheet and I try to interpret them in terms of their effects on inflation and rates. For example, high employment is inflationary, and low employment is deflationary. Also, growth in the GDP is inflationary. And so on.

The core CPI is a little over the Fed's target now. Energy costs, which had been declining, are now appearing to rise. Bad news for those on a fixed income or commuters. Those indicators I watch, i.e., manufacturing surveys, all suggest inflation. A moderate rate of inflation goes hand in hand with improving economic conditions, but with the core already over target this doesn't look good.

The governors of the Fed are not in agreement over policy. Tightening monetarily could reign in inflation, but at the cost of pushing us towards recession. A further and continued rise in inflation would be equally unpleasant. Moderation may be the key, but it doesn't look like the Fed has too many tools to use.
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Re: Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Wed Feb 22, 2012 1:33 pm

The latest housing data shows continued weakness. Sales are up, because prices are down. In our free market system a house is worth what someone will pay for it--these prices are still coming down off the bubble. Supply is at the lowest level since the recovery began.
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Re: Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

Postby Haggis@wk » Thu Feb 23, 2012 8:53 am

HALF of Americans don't pay income tax despite crippling gov't debt...

Not that this is much of a newsflash, but it’s news you probably won’t see in a U.S. newspaper.
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” Alexis De Tocqueville 1835
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Re: Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Thu Feb 23, 2012 2:15 pm

Well there's an article with a provocative headline. Crippling? I read the article, and the only cripples mentioned were those on aid. I didn't see anywhere explaining how debt was causing harm. And there's the assumption that the problem is taxes. Really? The numbers for those not paying taxes include children, retired, and unemployed. We should tax the cr*p out of these people. The Heritage Foundation is cited as complaining the electorate will be dominated by these people. Once we tax them they'll change their minds and vote differently.

Actually, they mean the votes of those people are not fair because they don't pay taxes.

Conservatives complain about this redistribution of wealth, but fail to see that it results in a reallocation of money beneficial to the economy.

In spite of the U.S. being the land of opportunity there will always be people on the lower income margin. My conscience is fine with the concept of helping them this way. I also look at the picture that shows how these monies they are spending strengthen the base of our economy.
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Re: Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Thu Feb 23, 2012 2:21 pm

Haggis@wk wrote:One of my poker buddies owns a medial billing service. He told us last week that he won't hire new staff because he's afraid what Obamacare's going to do to his current staff. As a result he said he had turned down additional work becase his curent staff, 9, can't do the work.


Thank you for this fine, ironic anecdote.

By the way, what do medial services have to do with Obamacare? I don't see a winkie smilie anymore, or I'd put one here.
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Re: Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

Postby Haggis@wk » Thu Feb 23, 2012 5:35 pm

The office of Senator Jeff Sessions, ranking member on the Senate Budget Committee, released this chart, showing that 'America’s Per Capita Government Debt Worse Than Greece,' as well as Ireland, Italy, France, Portugal, and Spain:


Image
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Re: Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

Postby Trumpetmaster » Fri Feb 24, 2012 6:44 am

Check out the "Note" under the chart.

Based on Obama's plan, U.S. debt would reach $75K per capita in 2022

We are heading in the wrong direction.
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Re: Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

Postby Haggis@wk » Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:02 am

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... Slopes.jpg

Sometime during this fiscal quarter our total debt will equal our total GDP.
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