Healthy economy equals quiet bulletin board

[Haggis@wk]

THERE’S THAT WORD AGAIN: New Home Sales “Unexpectedly” Slip 1.6% in February.

[Giant Communist Robot]

I wonder how these economists arrive at their forecasts. Anyway, both January and February are below the December peak in sales. This latest number is above same-time-last-year. Supply has grown from 5.5 months to 5.8. Still dismal.

[dai bread]

Tim Hazeldine, Professor of Economics at Auckland University, says that economic forecasting was invented to make astrology respectable.

[Giant Communist Robot]

Tim Hazeldine, Professor of Economics at Auckland University, says that economic forecasting was invented to make astrology respectable.

My plan is to run an ARIMA on some of these things that lack stationarity over the next year. But it's a lot of work, and I know that after so much effort and obtaining such precise results the natural inclination is to accept them more or less uncritically. I'm not sure if eyeballing the data and guessing wouldn't do as well.

[Giant Communist Robot]

...and on to today's data. Manufacturing surveys are positive; the Chicago Fed is above historical trend. Pending Home Sales are down a touch, but significantly above same-time-last-year. Check out the Dallas Fed report.

[Giant Communist Robot]

While today's Durable Goods report is down, it doesn't look too bad. New Orders look promising. The decline in government spending is evident; what I see as the weakness is consumer spending in electronics and transportation equipment.

[Giant Communist Robot]

Before I forget, MBA Composite is down; largely as a result of a drop in government refinancing. The housing market is still dismal.

[Shapley]

The economy must be improving - the bulletin board is getting quieter...

[Trumpetmaster]

The economy must be improving - the bulletin board is getting quieter...

Nope.... just busier here at work.....

[Haggis@wk]

The rise and fall of employment in America, 1948-2012. (Source: Bureau of labor Statistics.) The trend line is the civilian employment to population ratio. Our current doldrums appear to be a kind of bouncing around at the bottom after a fairly steady 10-year decline. The drop is precipitous with the onset of our current troubles, but things have looked pretty bleak since the late 90′s, mitigated by a few years of partial recovery. How do we turn this line back the right way?



In an election year, it’s easy to make this all about the current occupant of the Oval Office or his predecessor and current compatriots in Congress, depending on your leanings. But maybe that’s too easy.

There could be other reasons to account for the drop.

On Facebook, Wayne Radinsky comments: “It will be interesting to see what happens when the robotics revolution really takes off.”

If that’s not what we’re already seeing, we’re in a lot of trouble.

[dai bread]

Robotics replaces low-end labour, does it not? Therefore there will be a lot of unskilled and semi-skilled people wandering about with nothing to do but procreate, get high, and steal, with occasional outbursts of violence. Computer games may yet be the salvation of Western society.

[Shapley]

We're still seeing positive signs on the local front, with quotations and orders continuing. We still don't see the backlog where we'd like to see it, as it seems to hover somewhere between feast and famine at all times. Until we see stability, I don't see hiring picking up anytime soon, either with us or our customers and suppliers. The picture remains the same with both. Orders are up, but the long-term picture remains in doubt.

Many blame questions about future costs. I'm not sure how they determine that, or if they are just guessing at the reasons. There is no question that health coverage costs have risen markedly since the passage of 'Obamacare', as was expected. One does not remove the benefits ceiling, the pre-existing condition exclusion, and other coverage extensions and not expect the removal of such risk factors to not impact the cost of covering risk. This does leave some questioning the impact the pending enaction of other measures will add. If this really is a factor, then we can expect uncertainty all the way through 2014.

I can see where such uncertainty would impact long-term capital expenditure planning, and long-term capital expenditures are our bread and butter. Most of our current workload seems to be small-scale projects designed to upgrade existing equipment to meet current market shifts. Five or ten years ago, most of our customers would have built new facilities to respond to those shifts, with only a handful of smaller manufacturers making the type of design changes to existing facilities. That is because the upgrade of existing facilities usually leaves them wanting in some aspects - they can meet current demand, but are not equipped for increased demand (the changes usually push the existing facilities to the limit), and have little flexibility for additional product.

The only thing I can say for sure about the lack of new facility construction is that they do not trust the current market to expand sufficiently to cover the costs, thus they are skimping. Too many got caught with their pants down in 2008, methinks, and don't want that to happen again. Many of them are still recovering from capital expenditures made prior to 2008 - expenditures which were originally slated to be paid off by this time.

Uncertainty is the key word in the market today, methinks. I wish I had a magic wand that could change that.

[Shapley]

Where did everybody go?

Hello! ....hello! ....ello! ....llo! ....lo! ....o! ....!

A very quiet bulletin board. Everyone must be working...

[jamiebk]

Where did everybody go?

Hello! ....hello! ....ello! ....llo! ....lo! ....o! ....!

A very quiet bulletin board. Everyone must be working...

I know...seems like hardly anyone uses the board any more. I wonder how many still listen to B.com? I still do on both counts, although my BB use diminished greatly when my company blocked my access.

[Shapley]

I still subscribe and listen at work. My internet service at home does not support streaming.

GCR was keeping things active lately, but he seems to have gone mum. I'm hoping all is well with him, and he just got tired of posting with few, if any responses.

Likewise with Haggis. I suspect he's keeping himself busy. I didn't have time to call on him when I was in Dallas recently. The wife and I hope to return for a visit there soon, hopefully can meet up then.

Take care!

[Haggis@wk]

Likewise with Haggis. I suspect he's keeping himself busy. I didn't have time to call on him when I was in Dallas recently. The wife and I hope to return for a visit there soon, hopefully can meet up then.

That's a date, I'm serious, we'll do dinner and set the world straight one scotch at a time. Please consider this a firm invitation. I'll write one too, if your wife requires one!!!

Yes, I've been busy with work.

My favorite quote in the world is one by Chuck Yeager who once commented that he'd rather be lucky than good any day.

Last week I investigated a theft of a trailer with $49,000 worth of garbage bags (I'm in the wrong business) Using GPS data from the stolen trailer to track the trailer’s movement after its theft. At one location the trailer was at rest for almost eight hours before being abandoned, empty, a mile away.

While investigating the location, a small warehousing building with separate bays, I saw that one bay door was open and what appeared to cargo similar to the stolen cargo inside. Did I mention that private investigators don't bother with boring things like "probable cause" or "Miranda rights"??

I and another insurance investigator entered the warehouse and after lying to the the individual renting the warehouse he admitted that he had purchased the stolen cargo from an individual who had driven the trailer to the location.

Based on our find detectives from several jurisdictions responded. During a search of the warehouse additional sports memorabilia stolen during an earlier robbery was identified.

Total recovery of stolen property and equipment (he stole several forklifts during the robbery) was almost $265,000

A Cuban national was identified as the thief of the trailer and apprehended the same night.

Intelligence identified in the original search led police investigators to another warehouse in Dallas, TX. At that warehouse the Cuban national apparently broke into an empty warehouse and then moved stolen property into it.

Detectives searched the warehouse and found property from approximately 6 earlier thefts ranging from high value furniture to forklifts to cosmetics as well as stolen tractors (the kind that pull trailers, now the plowing kind) and several empty trailers that had been stolen. Total value of recovered property at that location was over $800,000, making our total haul in two day over $1MIL.

Since then I've been busy in several jurisdictions talking with local prosecutors and law enforcement agencies. Oh, and I got back all of my stolen trash bags

Successes like these are, admittedly, rare but damn they feel good when the bad guys lose a big one. As I said, I'd rather be lucky than good any day

[Shapley]

That's a lot of trash bags!

[dai bread]

Well done, Haggis! Take a bow.

[Giant Communist Robot]

A while back while discussing the nature of money I argued it's value came from the IRS demanding to be paid in dollars instead of sheep dung or used auto parts. I saw this from the St. Louis Feds' "Money, Credit, and Velocity:

The decree appears on the currency notes: "This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private." While no individual could refuse to accept such money for debt repayment, exchange could easily be composed to thwart its use in everyday commerce. However, a forceful explanation as to why money is accepted is that the federal government requires it as payment for tax liabilities. Anticipation of the need to clear this debt creates a demand for the pure fiat dollar.

[dai bread]

I think I'd have trouble trying to stuff sheep into my wallet. Even ones which are not Bighorns.