Will Europe Survive?

[dai bread]

They probably did. Sarkosy's been toast for some time. The only thing that surprised me about his election defeat was the narrowness of it. I'd expected a landslide. (I haven't tallied the votes for minor parties, or abstainers.)

[Giant Communist Robot]

Even if they did know, it doesn't fit into the models they use to forecast.

Last night on Christine Tan's CNBC program I saw Noriel Roubini saying Greece will leave the EMU in 2013. If they hurry, they can manage an orderly exit and avoid catastrophe. Will France leave at the same time?

[Shapley]

I remember reading right after the election, either in the National Review or the Weekly Standard, their summation of the (then) upcoming French elections. They suggested that Sarkozy and Hollande could count only on the votes they got prior to the runoff, with the remainder being split between them. How they would be split would be determined, if I recall correctly, on how much blame for the current economy would be laid at Sarkozy's feet.

I believe they referenced it to being a snapshot of the U.S. elections in November.

[Giant Communist Robot]

Will Europe Survive? The short answer is yes, and no.

[Trumpetmaster]

Will Europe Survive? The short answer is yes, and no.

you sound just like a politician....

[jamiebk]

Greece (and other lesser economies like Spain) need to gain control over their own currencies. Because of the Euro they are forced to live with affluence that they cannot afford...they cannot devalue their currency to make adjustments for their lagging economies. So, they become a dead limb to the whole of Europe. My opinion is that after the initial shock of having them leave, things will stabilize just fine. The Euro is really the German Mark on steroids anyway.

[Shapley]

Turkey has been wanting to join the Euro. The EU gave them a set of conditions that have to met before they can do so. They have replaced their old Turkish Lira with the New Turkish Lira, as an intermediate step.

Turkey's currency has long had difficulties. The EU requires them to fix problems in their structure in order to prevent that having an impact on the Euro, should they be accepted into the union. The Turks expalined to me that, if they can fix those problems, they will no longer have need to join the Euro. That made sense to me.

One thing that struck me was that the talk now seemed to be of Germany pulling out of the Euro, rather than Greece, Spain, and Italy (as was the talk before). The French elections have apparently shown that, while the EU can talk about imposing austerity, it really has no power to do so. Thus, Greece and Spain have nothing to lose by staying with the Euro, while Germany (who has become the Sugar Daddy of Europe) does.

[dai bread]

I wonder if Turkey still wants to join the Euro? If I was a Turk, I'd be thanking my lucky stars for European obfuscation.

[Shapley]

I wonder if Turkey still wants to join the Euro? If I was a Turk, I'd be thanking my lucky stars for European obfuscation.

The impression I got was that they are not so keen on it, but I spoke only with a couple of locals. I have no idea if they are representative of a large section of the nation.

[barfle]

The Euro is really the German Mark on steroids anyway.

I heard one of the pundits say that with the EU, Germany has finally won WWI.

[Shapley]

I heard one of the pundits say that with the EU, Germany has finally won WWI.

It took them long enough. I wonder how long before they'll win the second one?

[dai bread]

Never, I hope. I could live with Kaiser Bill, but not with Adolf.

[Haggis@wk]

ELECTION APOCALYPSE: Greeks Hoard Canned Food.

“Nervous Greeks are withdrawing up to 800 million euros ($1.01 billion) a day and stocking up on canned food as they fear the country will be forced to leave the eurozone after this Sunday’s election.”

Tick, tick.......

[dai bread]

If I were a Greek my money would have left the bank long ago. Probably the country as well.

[Giant Communist Robot]

In spite of everything they've held together. I don't expect any plans to solve their problems overnight. Incremental improvement looks like the plan here. Time is on their side.

[Shapley]

I haven't flipped on the news yet today to see how things are going.

[Giant Communist Robot]

Like a giant ship on the ocean, economies change direction slowly. My new opinion is that having weathered a couple of years of crises they'll make it until better times.

[Shapley]

Like a giant ship on the ocean, economies change direction slowly. My new opinion is that having weathered a couple of years of crises they'll make it until better times.

Perhaps, but we seem to be hove-to at a time when we should be putting on more canvas. Fair winds are blowing, but they're of no use with a lubber at the helm.