Greetings From Idiot America

[Shapley]

BigJon,

RE:

I wish I was half as smart as Shap.

I'm flattered, but it's hardly true. I'm a dunce, like everyone else in Idiot America, apparently. But, I do know how to Google!

V/R
Shapley

[analog]

Okay I cant sleep and stumbled on this:



http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0, ... 69,00.html

"In 2003 a team from Columbia University reported that the Sun’s heat had increased by 0.05 per cent a decade since the 1970s, the point when completely reliable data started to be collected. This would be enough to have a big influence on the Earth’s climate if it were a trend that had continued for many decades. The Columbia team believed that the pattern could be traced back to the mid-19th century at the very least. Others, working with carbon data material, insist that the Sun has been more vigorous in the past six decades than at any time in 8,000 years. It defies reason, surely, to conclude that this would be irrelevant to the climate." emphasis mine -a.

.05 percent doesn't sound like much. If earth's temperature is maintained by 'the sun's heat', might we expect earth's temperature to likewise increase by 1/20th percent a decade? If earth's temperature is around 500 degrees(F) above absolute zero, that's 0.25 degree (F) per decade. Not far from what they're estimating.

[Shapley]

analog,

A while back, I posted a link to this article, or one like it, regarding global warming on Mars.

To the best of knowledge, there has never been a Republican administration on Mars, so the effects there almost have to be by other causes. A warming Sun could have that effect.

I'm sure it's just a coincidence that Mars is warming at the same time as the Earth, though...

V/R
Shapley

[analog]

.....
To the best of knowledge, there has never been a Republican administration on Mars, so the effects there almost have to be by other causes. A warming Sun could have that effect.

I'm sure it's just a coincidence that Mars is warming at the same time as the Earth, though...

V/R
Shapley

That'd sure disappoint the Rachel Carson wannabe's .

Your article links to some other fascinating observations about the planet --- "The King has clothes! And as their blinders are gradually removed, even the most reticent scientists will suddenly discover that they knew all along that there is life on Mars," Levin told SPACE.com.
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/s ... 20528.html

I'm holding on to my Slim Whitman albums................

[Shapley]

Analog,

From the link you posted:

This argument is virtually unknown to the wider public. In part this is because the data required truly to prove the case have not been available, although Stereo should change that. It is also because the control exercised in this area by those who contend that global warming can only be man-made resembles that which the Roman Catholic Church once held over the character of the solar system. Public discussion is dominated by those inclined to the most doom-laden predictions, and this lobby is not that wild on the notion that astronomy may come up with a compelling alternative hypothesis.

It seems Haggis and I are not alone in questioning the unanimity of 'modern scientific thought' on this subject. The new religion of global warming is every bit as stubborn as the old religions concerning doubt being cast on 'established scientific fact'. Perhaps the 'hockey stick' will become the Crozier for the new pope of the scientific world.

V/R
Shapley

[Selma in Sandy Eggo]

Question: What "hockey stick"? That's a serious question, and I've been puzzled before about it, following this thread. I just wanna know what concept is being referred to (or, perhaps, mocked).

[BigJon@Work]

It is a somewhat derisive term for the historical temperature graph created by Michael Mann and friends (search wikipedia.org for Michael_Mann_(scientist)) that shows that our current global temperatures are the hottest in the last 1000 years. It is based on using paleo sciences as proxy for measuring historic temperatures. It is derided because it fails to show some very well know historical climatic swings. It is also attacked because it appears to have been assembled with bias that causes any results that are fed into the computer model to show that the current global temperatures are the hottest. Lastly, Mr. Mann has not been willing to submit his entire model for scrutiny by other scientists and gets very defensive when asked to provide his work.

Lots of poorly formatted articles against it here.
http://sepp.org/Archive/weekwas/weekwas.html

[BigJon@Work]

Let me add that the largest problem with the hockey stick is not the poor science process, but the reliance of policy makers on the hockey stick as proof that the climate policies are needed.

[Shapley]

It is also worth noting that, in order for the 'hockey stick' to look like a hockey stick, they have to begin their data about 900 years ago, during the 'little ice age'. If they extend the graph farther back, it will show that their indicators show temperatures in the same range as those currently being experienced, before the Earth entered the cooling cylce we are currently coming out of.

That previous period of global warming predates Republican environmental policies by about 9950 years.

V/R
Shapley

[OperaTenor]

And let's ignore the fact that Mann's graph has been generally corroborated by various means. After all, it's just superstition.

[BigJon@Work]

Here's a non-skeptic scientist's take on the problems of Mann and the others like him. Yes, OT there are others who have come to similar conclusions as Mann, but they are also treading the same ground as Mann et al and as of yet have not able to show independence and repeatability either.

See also
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin ... 003.01.pdf
and
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prome ... the_c.html
for more from this professor.

[BigJon@Work]

After all, it's just superstition.

You won't get off that easy. Belief in the inevitable catastrophe (and unending warming) is the superstition of the high priests.

[BigJon@Work]

Piq, still waiting for your repsonse. My time is short. Would it be similar to Professor Pielke's writings?

[Shapley]

McIntyre & McKitrick's analysis of the science used to create the "hockey stick"

Correspondence between Mann & McIntyre and McKitrick regarding the reconstruction of the data

A thoroughly-researched analysis of the hockey-stick graph

[BigJon@Work]

More from Professor Pielke http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin ... 000.18.pdf
I don't agree with him, but he does a better job of framing the debate than most.

[analog]

Excellent, interesting and scholarly posts, guys.............

[piqaboo]

Piq, still waiting for your repsonse. My time is short. Would it be similar to Professor Pielke's writings?

Sorry, sir. It takes time and thougth and I've given little of either to the board - most of my posts are top of head.

I'll get at least a partial response on tonight or tomorrow am.

[GreatCarouser]

Meanwhile this just in from the heart of the Homeland:

Car Dealer declares jihad on the auto market!

"They are planning on launching a jihad on the automotive market and their representatives would be wearing burqas ... ,"Mr Mirza said. "They mentioned the pope in there and also about giving rubber swords out to the kiddies – really just reprehensible-type comments."

Would you buy a car from that guy?

[Selma in Sandy Eggo]

Would you buy a car from that guy?

I just might, all other things being equal, buy a car from that guy. If the accountant could get her tongue out of her cheek and stop giggling long enough to write the receipt.

The whole commercial strikes me as funny. Of course, I'm notoriously insensitive and politically incorrect. Good thing I can hide behind the Hatch Act.

[analog]

Meanwhile this just in from the heart of the Homeland:



Would you buy a car from that guy?

Right now? - You Bet I Would! A Jeep Sahara Edition.

"The mystery of our time is the inability of decent people to get angry." Eric Hoffer.