Iran and the Bomb

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If Iran develops a nuclear weapon will it use it?

yes
20
87%
no
3
13%
 
Total votes : 23

Postby shostakovich » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:25 pm

Before projecting too far into the future, I'd like to see what sanctions, if any, the UN can come up with. Then, whether or not the sanctions are backed up BY THE UN, and how. The US is in no shape to start another war. Bubble head might be game, but Congress MUST have learned something!

If Iran does develop weapons, I don't see what legal recourse any nation or the UN would have to prevent them from using or sharing them. But their use should be considered an act of war, and any nation, including ours, that does so should be declared IN ADVANCE an enemy of the rest of the world, and clobbered.

In the event it is not a nation, but an organization that uses them, the nation that provided them should be clobbered. This will require all countries to keep an accounting of its nuclear weapons and provide the information to some oversight organization. This oversight organization should include ALL nuclear nations and an equal number of non-nuclear nations.

Great plan? Sure. Will such a plan ever be agreed upon? Unlikely. Can its function be carried out scrupulously? No way. Unfortunately.
Cynical Shos
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Postby bignaf » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:05 am

you're not nearly as cynical as you think. the plan stinks. after the atomic weapon is used, the "clobbering" is pointless. and the clobbering will probably take the form of an atomic bomb. great plan, yeah.
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Postby DavidS » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:47 am

Just grab 'em by the neck and garrot the buggers!
If they don't realise (or care) that they are going for the end of humanity, what other treatment is appropriate???
Tel grain, tel pain.
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Postby Selma in Sandy Eggo » Sun Sep 10, 2006 3:41 am

I do not judge it likely that the US will engage in a ground war to suppress further Mideast nastiness. (And an outstanding selection of pieces of nastiness Iran, Syria, Lebanon, et al have!)

I also judge that it is unlikely that they will ever in this lifetime cease to purposely cause grief and hate among their neighbors. The only authority they will accept on the subject of correct behavior is the Word of Allah; I believe they should be scheduled for a personal meeting with Him. I am simply unable to work out the details. Those details will probably involve a lot of general destruction and loss of life among the bystanders.

It is my rather cynical conviction that thugs with fissionables will continue to sell them to fanatics with cash. The fanatics possess some rather decent weapons engineers and lots of suicidal skilled labor. None of them will deal honestly with an infidel. The only time they're likely to be speaking honest truth to an infidel is when they're saying "Convert or die." We can't make a deal with them, we can't reason with them, and we don't seem to frighten them. What's left?

We could go with Islamic tradition and send in assassins. Maybe we could rent some from the Mafia? Perhaps the Pope would pre-absolve them for us? Call it a crusade?

We could give up reason and civility and bomb them into glassy rubble. I'm not sure the Pope has enough absolution for that one, though.

We could invade in force, geld all the men and baptize 'em with bacon grease. I could live with that.

All of these silly ideas are more likely than the suggestion that the UN will actually DO something. I'm liking Plan C better all the time.
>^..^<
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Postby DavidS » Sun Sep 10, 2006 3:49 am

Selma - what you say is scary and depressing.
Are we to believe that because of such nutcases the human race has to go up in smoke?
Tel grain, tel pain.
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Postby Selma in Sandy Eggo » Sun Sep 10, 2006 4:33 am

I dunno how much smoke it will be, David. Those nutcases don't seem to learn from experience (or they'd've given up annoying you Israelis) and they don't learn from books (do they even have books?) and they can't learn from observation because all they can see is what their mullahs are showing them. The senior nutcases are drunk on power and, like any drunk, aren't exercising good judgement.

I don't know if it will end in jihad, crusade, glassy landscape, or something else. I'm hoping for the best but I'm not actually expecting it.
>^..^<
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Postby DavidS » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:05 am

Selma in Sandy Eggo wrote:or they'd've given up annoying you Israelis

Yeh, that's what's worrying me, Selma: It's not so much "annoying" Israelis as dreaming of exterminating them.
And after the Holocaust, Israel is definitely not going to let that happen as "lambs to the slaughterer".
Tel grain, tel pain.
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Postby bignaf » Sun Sep 10, 2006 10:04 am

Selma in Sandy Eggo wrote:We could invade in force, geld all the men and baptize 'em with bacon grease. I could live with that.

All of these silly ideas are more likely than the suggestion that the UN will actually DO something. I'm liking Plan C better all the time.

Plan C sounds good.
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Postby DavidS » Sun Sep 10, 2006 10:15 am

What we see here is the way basically peace-loving people are dragged into tough, uncompromising assertivity by those intent on violent aggression.
Unfortunate, but inevitable.
Tel grain, tel pain.
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Postby piqaboo » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:46 pm

DavidS wrote:What we see here is the way basically peace-loving people are dragged into tough, uncompromising assertivity by those intent on violent aggression.
Unfortunate, but inevitable.


About now, Haggis should take a bow.
Altoid - curiously strong.
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Postby shostakovich » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:16 pm

bignaf wrote:you're not nearly as cynical as you think. the plan stinks. after the atomic weapon is used, the "clobbering" is pointless. and the clobbering will probably take the form of an atomic bomb. great plan, yeah.


The US and USSR had years of nuclear build-up for defense against just such an attack. Having the weapons prevented their use. No atomic bomb has been detonated in anger since 1945. If world policy is to clobber the party that first uses it, then that is a DETERRANT. If, however, some middle easterm loose cannon sets one off, it would be mandatory to back up the threat --- regrettably. We would all suffer. Still, countries around a rogue country would have good reason to put anti-nuclear pressure on the rogue. Just bear in mind the principle thrust of the "clobbering plan" is PREVENTION.
Shos, who is so as cynical an he thinks.
Last edited by shostakovich on Tue Sep 12, 2006 9:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby DavidS » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:51 pm

shostakovich wrote:
bignaf wrote:you're not nearly as cynical as you think. the plan stinks. after the atomic weapon is used, the "clobbering" is pointless. and the clobbering will probably take the form of an atomic bomb. great plan, yeah.


The US and USSR had years or nuclear build-up for defense against just such an attack. Having the weapons prevented their use. No atomic bomb has been detonated in anger since 1945. If world policy is to clobber the party that first uses it, then that is a DETERRANT. If, however, some middle easterm loose cannon sets one off, it would be mandatory to back up the threat --- regrettably. We would all suffer. Still, countries around a rogue country would have good reason to put anti-nuclear pressure on the rogue. Just bear in mind the principle thrust of the "clobbering plan" is PREVENTION.
Shos, who is so as cynical an he thinks.

Shos, your logic is correct when you want to deter someone who has some interest in preventing his own demise.
How do you twist the arm of someone who couldn't care two farthings if the whole of the human race is trashed?
Tel grain, tel pain.
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Postby GreatCarouser » Mon Sep 11, 2006 11:46 pm

DavidS wrote:Selma - what you say is scary and depressing.
Are we to believe that because of such nutcases the human race has to go up in smoke?


Adolf Hitler and Josef Stalin.....
Sacred cows make the best hamburger.
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Postby GreatCarouser » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:12 am

This is from an interview with Dr. Walid Phares in The Sun
Why the terrorists hate us
Sacred cows make the best hamburger.
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Postby GreatCarouser » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:35 am

This is from a 1998 interview with bin Laden

bin Laden interview
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Postby Selma in Sandy Eggo » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:54 am

GreatCarouser wrote:
DavidS wrote:Selma - what you say is scary and depressing.
Are we to believe that because of such nutcases the human race has to go up in smoke?


Adolf Hitler and Josef Stalin.....

Idi Amin and Anse Hatfield and Pol Pot.....
>^..^<
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Postby GreatCarouser » Tue Sep 12, 2006 9:52 am

I was hoping to find the text of an interview done with bin Laden at his hideout along the Pakistan/Afghanistan border given during the war with the Taliban and the subsequent hunt for him. The interview was referred to during a Discovery Channel piece I was watching recently. They quote bin Laden saying something akin to 'the difference between us and the US is that they worship life while we embrace death'. Still looking but the amount of material to sift through is formidable.

Meanwhile I did find this:

A conversation on the beach

"Then he gave me a fierce look and said: "If you had said in any Arab country about Islam, what you have just said to me, you would be a dead man!"

"I am sure I would. And if you had said in any Arab country denouncing their corrupt regimes the way you are denouncing Israel, you would be a dead man too. Yet, here you are, studying at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, allowing yourself openly to speak of subversion and treason against the State of Israel, without any fear of being arrested, let alone being killed for it. Doesn't it say something to you?"

"Yes, it says that you are weak, and that weakness will be your undoing." he said seriously."
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Postby piqaboo » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:34 pm

I am beginning to believe in Armageddon. :(
Altoid - curiously strong.
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Postby DavidS » Tue Sep 12, 2006 2:44 pm

GreatCarouser wrote:. Yet, here you are, studying at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, allowing yourself openly to speak of subversion and treason against the State of Israel, without any fear of being arrested, let alone being killed for it. Doesn't it say something to you?"

"Yes, it says that you are weak, and that weakness will be your undoing." he said seriously."[/i]

That's their big mistake, just like the Nazis in WW2, imagining that the other side is not determined and capable of preserving their way of life.
Tel grain, tel pain.
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Postby Haggis@wk » Tue Sep 12, 2006 3:25 pm

I posted this elsewhere but thought I would re-post it here.

The Guardian

”I will spell this out, because it has not been broadly assimilated. The most extreme Islamists want to kill everyone on earth except the most extreme Islamists; but every jihadi sees the need for eliminating all non-Muslims, either by conversion or by execution. And we now know what happens when Islamism gets its hands on an army (Algeria) or on something resembling a nation state (Sudan). In the first case, the result was fratricide, with 100,000 dead; in the second, following the Islamist coup in 1989, the result has been a kind of rolling genocide, and the figure is perhaps two million. And it all goes back to Greeley, Colorado, and to Sayyid Qutb.”



I have been researching Sayyid Qutb for several weeks after learning he was considered the father of radical Islam. He went to college in Greeley, CO in the 50’s and was disgusted at what he thought was the excesses of American culture, vulgarity materialism and promiscuity. Now if those excesses were on full display in Greeley Co in the 50’s you have to wonder how low his “shock and disgust” meter was set.

Actually, from my limited research Qutb was convinced that America’s style and dazzle would blind people from the real height of civilization – and this is the most important bit – which in his mind began in the 7th century with Muhammad and reached it’s peak Middle Ages through victories of the Muslim Armies. And a direct line of influence runs from Qutb to OBL and al-Zawahiri and from them to another Egyptian visiting the United States, Mohammad Atta.

Qutb’s gripes about the U.S. are important because it pretty much answers that stupid question “Why do the hate us?” Given his philosophy it was inevitable that he would come to view the western world in general and the U.S. in particular as the antithesis of what he held most dear, a return to the glories (his version, anyway) of Islam.

He theorized that the modern world is jahiliyya, the age of barbarism that existed before Muhammad and only by strict adherence or application of the laws of the prophet will change that.

So nearly a thousand years of history became an offense caused by the crusaders and the Jews. So Qutb called for a holy war against jahiliyya which is essentially all of the modern world.

Qutb was executed in 1966 in Egypt when he would not renounce his call for holey war. His brother moved to Saudi Arabia and continued teaching Qutb’s philosophy. One of his students was OBL.

I really try to temper my remarks and I must admit to some possibly overheated rhetoric, particularly on this thread recently that I regret.

(Ed. “Unlike OT’s understated lukewarm rhetoric????”

Lets not go there, he still thinks the MIBs are sizing him up for a cage at Gitmo
)

I guess what I’m trying to get my arms around is what is it we are actually facing? Is the 1938 simile I’ve seen posted elsewhere legitimate? If we had been willing to use force against Hitler in 1938 could we have saved the Jews, Gypsies, etc?

And are there suitable similarities to help us make the choice now? I’m fairly certain that the bulk or Iranians don’t like the current direction their government is taking their country but what can they do to stop it?

In hindsight, the 1938 question is much easier but then history would have taken another track and some historian and "socially conscious" people would be complaining about precipitious action that might not have been needed.

Are the madmen in charge in Iran willing to trade 6 million Israelis for 6, 10, 20 million Iranians?

And if that were even thinkable would not the Israelis already plan to raise the ante to a level that even Ahmadinejad would be forced to think twice about?

I think we are living in perilous times made all the more frightening because a wrong decision here will have far-reaching and painful consequences.

I suppose it’s theoretically possible that an effective sanction program (There’s an oxymoron!) would have some effect on Iran but only if those two wild cards Russia and China joined in. Without them any sanction program is doomed and we’re right back where we started.

To try and remain even I'll just say I'm not sanguine about the outcome
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” Alexis De Tocqueville 1835
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