Gas Price Outrage!

[OperaTenor]

Right. I post here becuase it's fun. If I want serious I'll just focus on work...

Same here...........................................................oh, never mind.

[Nicole Marie]

I used to enjoy tweaking HRH a bit too, but Nicole, you are just not as reactive as you used to be so the fun has gone out of it.

Yeah... I'm close to 30 and mellowed a bit! Life is too short to get your panties in a twist... (We need an emoticon with twisted undies. Do they make that? I'll have to check with Sarge.)

[Shapley]

Right. I post here becuase it's fun. If I want serious I'll just focus on work...

Same here...........................................................oh, never mind.

I'm not saying we don't discuss serious topics, but I try to keep in lighthearted. If it gets too heavy, I try to bail out and take a breather.

Of course, I may not have the same definiton of 'heavy' as the next guy...

[OperaTenor]

Right. I post here becuase it's fun. If I want serious I'll just focus on work...

Same here...........................................................oh, never mind.

I'm not saying we don't discuss serious topics, but I try to keep in lighthearted. If it gets to heavy, I try to bail out and take a breather.

Of course, I may not have the same definiton of 'heavy' as the next guy...

You makin' fun of my weight?!

[Catmando]

Yeah... I'm close to 30 and mellowed a bit!

Just wait 'till after you turn 30 and into your thirties, you will find you mellow out even more. I know I have.

[piqaboo]

I'm aging more like cheese, and getting sharper.

[Shapley]

You makin' fun of my weight?!

Nah! That would be a case of the pot-belly calling the kettle black!

[Selma in Sandy Eggo]

Just wait 'till after you turn 30 and into your thirties, you will find you mellow out even more. I know I have.

indeed. Somehow, 30 doesn't seem like a major mellowing point to me. Minor, perhaps.

Probably my major mellowing point was the 18th birthday of my youngest child. Giant "Whew, That's over" event. As in, "I'm glad I can stop being a good role model." Plus plenty of "Off the hook! I'm Off the Hook!" and a bit of "I did it! They're literate and not crazy!" The "working parent" classification was probably the longest stress event of my life.

Serenity, take note. You are stressed with good cause and it's not your fault and you're not alone! It is temporary!

There are still days I could use the :twisted undies: icon. Good idea, Nicole. I could use a :riding my brass broomstick straight into Hell: icon, too, if it exists. That happy little just isn't the same. And how about a :bats in her belfry:? For Halloween, maybe?

[barfle]

A few other smilies recommendations:

:chill:
:smirk:
:snark:
:gotcha!:
:notinthislife:
:OTandHaggisagree:

Well, maybe the last one would be

[BenODen]

If you go to this site and create the 3-year chart, you will see that Indiana gasoline prices saw a similarly dramatic plunge from the August Peak to the September level.

Hmm, cool site, too bad it doesn't go back further.. But it has some interesting information if you combine the crude oil and gasoline graphs. Graph a city against the oil prices and an interesting trend comes out. Prior to May 2004, gasoline prices were trakcing oil prices with some smoothing. since then, from may 2004 to Feb 2005, oil prices were not effecting gas prices much. No you have gas prices tracking oil prices with some larger smoothing, but on a different slope, which makes some sense since it's gasoline has other price components. First thing I'd note is that the post katrina gasoline price slide is deeper than the oil prices slide indicates it should be, but that now we're tracking oil better. (Note the distance between the crude oil line and gasoline line is 3.5-4 blocks, but it's shrinking, so perhaps, the gas price is HIGHER not lower than the oil price would seem to indicate.) So, ok. Something's a bit squirrly, but gasoline certainly wasn't more expensive than the oil contribution and now isn't cheaper, so I'll give up any claims to a gasoline only pricing issue. Now why is it that oil peaked in May? after such a sustained run up, only to slide off again in July? I dunno... Weird stuff.[/list]

[BigJon]

Sorry, I thought I was being life affirming.

Back to the topic. Basic economic and civics training may lower the percentage responding positively to this poll question. Unless, of course, the seductiveness of the grand conspiracy theory is just too much for so many people to resist.

These links are found in the comments.
Some good explanations here.
Even Kos gets most of it. What's-his-name over there has some training in econ.


Maybe we should change the meaning of the acronym POTUS to the Power Over the United States.

[OperaTenor]

The first two are someone's opinion only, not hard facts.

The guy in KOS makes one grave mistake: He claims Saudi Arabia doesn't have the reserves to manipulate prices downward. WRONG.

Saudi Arabia is the world's leading oil producer and exporter, and its location in the politically volatile Gulf region adds an element of concern for its major customers, including the United States. Saudi Arabia maintains crude oil production capacity of around 10.5-11.0 million bbl/d, and claims that it is "easily capable" of producing up to 15 million bbl/d in the future and maintaining that production level for 50 years. In June 2005, Saudi Aramco's senior vice president of gas operations, Khalid al-Falih, stated that Saudi Arabia would raise production capacity to more than 12 million bbl/d by 2009, and then possibly to 15 million bbl/d "if the market situation justifies it." Falih added that by 2006, Saudi Arabia would have 90 drilling rigs in the Kingdom, more than double the number of rigs operating in 2004.

And, one paragraph later:

Aramco estimates that the average total depletion for Saudi oil fields is 28 percent, with the giant Ghawar field having produced 48 percent of its proved reserves. Aramco also claims that, if anything, Saudi oil reserves are underestimated, not overestimated.

This, from the Energy Information Administration, the statistcs branch of the DOE.

Saudi Arabia's current quota is 12 million bbl per day, and they turn out 10.5-11 million bbl/day average.

As for Iraq, ~10% of the country has been explored, and speculations vary from additional reserves of 45 - 100+ billion bbl in addition to the 115 billion bbl in proven reserves. It is entirely probable those speculations are wildly conservative, and Iraq could be sitting on a sea of oil that would dwarf Saudi Arabia.

This is what it's all about.

When you have something more than individual opinions, come back and talk to me.

[Shapley]

Well, The shift from MTBE to Ethanol would go far in explaining the shift in oil vs. gasoline prices Ben noted. MTBE is cheap and readily available. (Never mind that it causes more problems than it fixes, that is not the issue here.) MTBE is a by-product of the oil refining process, meaning that its availability increases as produciton increases, so it would have little or no effect on pricing.

Ethanol, on the other hand, is expensive, and has to be acquired from sources outside the refinery, making the availability or lack of availability a factor in end-product prices independent of the base-oil price. Factor in the costs of switching the refining process over to Ethanol blending, and you have some high short-term costs that would affect the price as well.

It would also make sense that Ethanol availability would increase at harvest time, since there is not sufficient capacity for large surpluses to be kept on hand. As the use of ethanol-blended fuel becomes more common, one would expect that market forces will compel the ethanol producers to increase distilling and storage capacity - resulting in more price stability in the long run.

V/R
Shapley

[Nicole Marie]

Yeah... I'm close to 30 and mellowed a bit!

Just wait 'till after you turn 30 and into your thirties, you will find you mellow out even more. I know I have.

True, true. But at close to 30, I have no kids (thank the lord - I REALLY don't want any). My husband and I travel often, Thi Chi has taken over my life and I'm busy performing with the orchestra. I find I'm doing more now then ever before. Maybe it's not a mellowing but a redirection in life?

[Catmando]

Well put Nicole. I find that you really know more what you want out of life and what kind of life you wish to live as you grow later into your 20's, and then in your 30's.

Do you perform with the orchestra on a regular basis?

I also don't believe that I want my own children, but am really happy to be with someone who has a young son.

Anyways, I really need to stop hijacking this thread.

I'm all for lower gas prices.

[Shapley]

Well, whatever it is, it seems to be doing you some good. I've not been able to get your feathers ruffled in a long time.

V/R
Shapley

[Nicole Marie]

let's keep hijacking...

I am principle double bassist with the West Hartford Symphony Orchestra. http://www.whso.org I've been playing with them for three years now. Before that I was with the CT Valley Chamber Orchestra and have been asked to play for them again. I have to see if I can balance both. I also teach bass at the Hartford Conservatory.

[Shapley]

When I first heard about this ethanol-in-the-gasoline thing, I headed over to Raccoon Holler to talk to Zeke Calder. Ol' Zeke is the biggest ethanol dealer I know. He provides all the hooch for the Long Branch - the biggest dang speakeasy in this end of the State. I wondered if he was going to get in the blended gasoline business. This is what he had to say:

He pointed to a stack of galvanized drums, copper tube and fire brick he had stacked in the weeds behind his current still....er... ethanol plant.

"You betcha!" he said, "I'm fixin' to go into the biznez beg time. I'm a gonna keep this here still runnin' for the folks at the 'branch, cuz they bin my good cust'mers all these years, but them thar new stills is strickly gonna be for the big refinery downstate. I reckon they's gonna need all I can make, and I can name my price, cuz they ain't nobody can produce a finer batch o' likker than me. Here, take a swig and see for yourself."

He proffered the jug, but I had to refuse. Zeke understood.

"Yeah, I 'member the last time you had some over at the 'branch. You woke up nekkid in the back of Mary Lou's truck over in shantytown. Did you ever find yer britches?

"Anyhow, I'm a gonna go lejitimut once this gets to rollin, 'xept for what I sells to the 'branch. I'm a tradin' these overalls in for a suit and tie, they got a real nice one over at Wal-Mart for $75. Imma gonna be a real biznez man, I tell ye.

"Im a gonna send my daughter, Daisy, off to that cumunitee college to get some book larnin'. I reckon thar'll be some guvmint forms to fill out and all, and I'll have her do it fer me. I'll have to pay her, I reckon, I'm sure they's some kind o' union rules or sumpin 'bout that. Did you ever get hitched up? She'd make a fine catch, once she gets cleaned up and gets some larnin' and a payin' job.

"Anyway, things is looking up. I'll be makin' good money. Daisy'll be set for life, what with all that larnin' and money and all. I reckon she'll have to beat the boys off'n her with a stick. Well, maybe not, she'll maybe just let 'em pile on her, same as always.

"Everbody'll be happy. Gas'll be cheaper, We'll be richer, the holler'll be a thrivin' biznez park. Course the folks at the branch'll be fussin' a might, since the cost o' hootch'll go up. Competition and all, ya know."

I hadn't though about that conversation in quite a while, since the ethanol thing didn't really take off after that. I read the link BigJon posted, and saw that ethanol is the big thing again, so I took a drive back up the holler.

It took some searching, but I finally caught up with Zeke, living in a cave along the river. After a little coaxing, I lured him out and we walked back to where his stilll ...er... ethanol plant still stood, although it looked like it had suffered a minor setback. Zeke dug through the broken pile of stoneware, finally producing an unbroken jug. He uncorked it, took and swig and offered it to me. He showed a slight smile, the first I'd seen since I caught up with him, as he withdrew the jug and took another swig. He pointed to the remains of his production facility.

"Revenooers" he said. "They raided the 'branch a few months ago. That good-fer-nuttin' barkeep told 'em I was supplyin' the likker, so they came over here and smashed the whole operation, even the new stuff I had over there." He pointed to the now-overgrown weed patch that hid the remains of the drums, tubing, and firebrick I had seen on my last visit. "I been hidin' in that cave ever since. They been watchin' my house ever since the raid.

"The guvmint done give a whole bunch o' money to the folks what run that big grain elevator over at Shantytown. They built a big fancy inside still - I ain't never seen nuttin' like it. Truckloads o' corn roll in there all the time, and shiny trucks o' hootch roll it over the refinery downstate. You can't even get 'em to sell you a jug o' the stuff, the refinery gets ever drop. Just as well, I reckon, I hear the stuff ain't fit to drink, but that's the kind o' crap the refinery wants. Reg'lar folk like me, what been makin' quality hootch all their lives, ain't got a chance.

"That pig farmer's boy, Newt, he got hiz self a high payin' job there, even though most o' the pigs his daddy raises got more sense than he does. He bought hiz self a new furrin' pickup truck and come a callin' on Daisy. Went and knock'd her up, too. Now they's got a young 'un, named her "Toyota" on a counta that's where they made her. Got another on the way, too, so she ain't a gonna go that thar college like I wanted. Not that I coulda paid fer it now, no how.

"I'll tell you what. It's all a big ol' con-spear-a-see by the guvmint and them grain elevator folks. The mayor over at Shantytown, his daddy's on the board at the grain elevator, and his cousin knows the gubnor real good. They's a puttin' cheap hootch in the gas, and the price is a goin' up. And them refinery folks is a gettin' richer all the time. Us hard workin' men, we ain't gotta chance. That's what I say. You want a swig?"

So there you have it. Govenment conspiracies, high level connections, and rising gas prices. It's all right there. Rumour has it that the mayor over in Shantytown is a Republican, too, although he runs as a Democrat since they haven't elected a Republican there in almost a hundred years. Just ask Zeke, if you can find him.

V/R
Shapley

[Haggis@wk]

Gas prices.....who cares? and do Democrats really expect people to walk into the voting booth and say "Gas is $3.00 a gal. I'm gonna vote the straight Democratic ticket"?

I don't know which is worse, the notion that people are so gullible that they think the price of gas is dependent on who's in the White House or the fact that the Democrats think the price of gas is an issue they can exploit to get back into power.

"Vote for me because yadda, yadda, - Bush lied - yadda, yadda - I support the troops - yadda, yadda, - timetable - yadda, yadda I CAN LOWER THE PRICE OF GAS!!!!!"

Sheesh

[OperaTenor]

Shap, doesn't that belong in the "And now, for something completely different..." thread?

:p