No more fish by 2048

[Giant Communist Robot]

linkie

I'd be sceptical of any model's predictions for something as large as the ocean's biodiversity. This is the headline of the Honolulu Advertiser: "No more fish to eat by 2048." That least square linear regression line fits real well on the chart but doesn't tell us the whole story.

[Catmando]

That's a very scary thought if it is true!

[Catmando]

Let the cloning begin!

[shostakovich]

I read the article in the paper. Concern about overpopulation, anyone?

[Catmando]

I read the article in the paper. Concern about overpopulation, anyone?

Most definitely.

[jamiebk]

That article appeared in our paper this AM. It's quite alarming and over-fishing is a real problem. Even in remote atolls and islands in the South Pacific, people who have lived there for centuries and survived on fishing have noted huge decreasesin size and quantity of fish. I am a scuba diver and have traveled to some of these places. Check out some of the on-line resources regarding lobster, shrimp, and tuna depletion. The oceans can recover their bounty, but we have to take mesaures to limit the "take" so this can happen. It's really a matter or rationing what we have.

[Shapley]

Don't give up on seafood just yet. Here is a list of food-fish species, identifying which are obtained using 'ocean friendly' methods, and which to avoid due to overfishing and other problems.

[Serenity]

Fish?

Did someone say "fish"?

Holy Mackerel! Not the puns again!

[bignaf]

I read the article in the paper. Concern about overpopulation, anyone?

Most definitely.

yeah, we need a nice big nuclear war!

[OperaTenor]

That least square linear regression line fits real well on the chart but doesn't tell us the whole story.

You mean this curve? Could you elaborate further on that? I thought it dovetailed nicely with the thrust of the study.

The industry comment amounted to corporate nay-saying, backed up by a couple of anecdotal examples. I thought it was pretty shameless.

[dai bread]

We've had a quota management system here since the '80s. Of the 130 species fished commercially, 94 are under this system. Its effectiveness is still debated, but it generally seems to be working. We still have a fishing industry, though parts of it are less healthy than they should be, notably the Bluff oyster fishery, though their problem arose from bonamia disease rather than over-fishing.

[piqaboo]

Curve, article, etc

1) the fishermen are in denial. True

2) a straight line would also describe that data well, extending the time to depletion out to 2120 ish.

3) aquaculture is on the increase, so the shrimp stand a chance

4) fishing tends to remove the big healthy breeders and the genetically large individuals from the population. Even given time, its not clear that Florida will ever again have the abundance of enormous groupers they had once. They seem to have been removed from the gene-pool.

5) the list of "edible" fish has expanded greatly for the western world over the past decades, as we now eat fish that we once considered "trash fish". We eat them now because they were marketed to us. They were marketed to us because the fisheries were having trouble getting enough of those species we were used to. As each species population decreases, we attack a new species.

6) Many varieties of salmon, seatrout etc return to their birth streams to spawn. Once that variety is gone, its not clear that another lineage will adopt that stream. Each stream has a maximum capacity. Thus, fewer streams in use means even after fishing is halted completely, maximum fish stocks will not be as large, unless baby fish/eggs are introduced, so as to 'adopt' those streams.


While I have questions about the absoluteness of this conclusion (the year 2048 is the year the oceans die), the data in general over many years supports that overall, the ocean and edible fish populations are hurting,and that we could drive it all to an endpoint of ocean-fish no longer being a commercially viable food source.

Conservation early might not be necessary, but given that its impossible after the fact, I think its worthwhile.

[GreatCarouser]

So in 2042 the dolphins will leave?....Where have I heard that before?...I wonder if they'll leave a note?

[piqaboo]

So in 2042 the dolphins will leave?....Where have I heard that before?...I wonder if they'll leave a note?

SCORE!!!! :laugh: Laugh:

[BigJon]

Ah, the tragedy of the commons. Time to take the ocean private.

[Giant Communist Robot]

Enough with eating all this sea stuff! Time to learn to eat bugs.

[barfle]

Enough with eating all this sea stuff! Time to learn to eat bugs.

And Daffy, and Mickey, and Roger, and Donald, and Sylvester, and Chip...