No more fish by 2048

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No more fish by 2048

Postby Giant Communist Robot » Fri Nov 03, 2006 1:31 pm

linkie

I'd be sceptical of any model's predictions for something as large as the ocean's biodiversity. This is the headline of the Honolulu Advertiser: "No more fish to eat by 2048." That least square linear regression line fits real well on the chart but doesn't tell us the whole story.
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Postby Catmando » Fri Nov 03, 2006 1:35 pm

That's a very scary thought if it is true! :shock:
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Postby Catmando » Fri Nov 03, 2006 1:50 pm

Let the cloning begin! :P
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Postby shostakovich » Fri Nov 03, 2006 1:57 pm

I read the article in the paper. Concern about overpopulation, anyone?
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Postby Catmando » Fri Nov 03, 2006 1:59 pm

shostakovich wrote:I read the article in the paper. Concern about overpopulation, anyone?

Most definitely.
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Postby jamiebk » Fri Nov 03, 2006 2:12 pm

That article appeared in our paper this AM. It's quite alarming and over-fishing is a real problem. Even in remote atolls and islands in the South Pacific, people who have lived there for centuries and survived on fishing have noted huge decreasesin size and quantity of fish. I am a scuba diver and have traveled to some of these places. Check out some of the on-line resources regarding lobster, shrimp, and tuna depletion. The oceans can recover their bounty, but we have to take mesaures to limit the "take" so this can happen. It's really a matter or rationing what we have.
Jamie

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Postby Shapley » Fri Nov 03, 2006 2:33 pm

Don't give up on seafood just yet. Here is a list of food-fish species, identifying which are obtained using 'ocean friendly' methods, and which to avoid due to overfishing and other problems.
Quod scripsi, scripsi.
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Postby Serenity » Fri Nov 03, 2006 2:37 pm

Fish?

Did someone say "fish"?

Holy Mackerel! Not the puns again! :rolleyes:
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Postby bignaf » Fri Nov 03, 2006 2:47 pm

Catmando wrote:
shostakovich wrote:I read the article in the paper. Concern about overpopulation, anyone?

Most definitely.


yeah, we need a nice big nuclear war!
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Re: No more fish by 2048

Postby OperaTenor » Fri Nov 03, 2006 3:11 pm

Giant Communist Robot wrote: That least square linear regression line fits real well on the chart but doesn't tell us the whole story.


Image

You mean this curve? Could you elaborate further on that? I thought it dovetailed nicely with the thrust of the study.

The industry comment amounted to corporate nay-saying, backed up by a couple of anecdotal examples. I thought it was pretty shameless.
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Postby dai bread » Fri Nov 03, 2006 5:17 pm

We've had a quota management system here since the '80s. Of the 130 species fished commercially, 94 are under this system. Its effectiveness is still debated, but it generally seems to be working. We still have a fishing industry, though parts of it are less healthy than they should be, notably the Bluff oyster fishery, though their problem arose from bonamia disease rather than over-fishing.
We have no money; we must use our brains. -Ernest Rutherford.
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Postby piqaboo » Fri Nov 03, 2006 5:24 pm

Curve, article, etc

1) the fishermen are in denial. True

2) a straight line would also describe that data well, extending the time to depletion out to 2120 ish.

3) aquaculture is on the increase, so the shrimp stand a chance

4) fishing tends to remove the big healthy breeders and the genetically large individuals from the population. Even given time, its not clear that Florida will ever again have the abundance of enormous groupers they had once. They seem to have been removed from the gene-pool.

5) the list of "edible" fish has expanded greatly for the western world over the past decades, as we now eat fish that we once considered "trash fish". We eat them now because they were marketed to us. They were marketed to us because the fisheries were having trouble getting enough of those species we were used to. As each species population decreases, we attack a new species.

6) Many varieties of salmon, seatrout etc return to their birth streams to spawn. Once that variety is gone, its not clear that another lineage will adopt that stream. Each stream has a maximum capacity. Thus, fewer streams in use means even after fishing is halted completely, maximum fish stocks will not be as large, unless baby fish/eggs are introduced, so as to 'adopt' those streams.


While I have questions about the absoluteness of this conclusion (the year 2048 is the year the oceans die), the data in general over many years supports that overall, the ocean and edible fish populations are hurting,and that we could drive it all to an endpoint of ocean-fish no longer being a commercially viable food source.

Conservation early might not be necessary, but given that its impossible after the fact, I think its worthwhile.
Altoid - curiously strong.
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Postby GreatCarouser » Sat Nov 04, 2006 12:06 am

So in 2042 the dolphins will leave?....Where have I heard that before?...I wonder if they'll leave a note?
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Postby piqaboo » Sat Nov 04, 2006 12:41 am

GreatCarouser wrote:So in 2042 the dolphins will leave?....Where have I heard that before?...I wonder if they'll leave a note?


:rofl: :rofl: SCORE!!!! :laugh: Laugh:
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Postby BigJon » Sat Nov 04, 2006 1:11 am

Ah, the tragedy of the commons. Time to take the ocean private.
Even a blind nut finds a squirrel once in a while. – Me! Feb 9, 2001
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Postby Giant Communist Robot » Mon Nov 06, 2006 1:45 pm

Enough with eating all this sea stuff! Time to learn to eat bugs.
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Postby barfle » Mon Nov 06, 2006 1:54 pm

Giant Communist Robot wrote:Enough with eating all this sea stuff! Time to learn to eat bugs.

And Daffy, and Mickey, and Roger, and Donald, and Sylvester, and Chip...
--I know what I like--
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